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Prediction markets for Frame AI

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

2331706

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

65

56

50

29

9

0

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3818973

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

54

52

44

35

17

0

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

30.11%chance

446932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

597

When will AI forecasting crush human superforecasters?

Jul 7, 4:56 AMJul 1, 7:00 AM

345832

OptionProbability

After June 2028

July 2027 to June 2028

Before July 2027

49

43

8

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 5B views before 2027?

Jan 18, 8:55 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

5%chance

254881

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3111

760

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

212817

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2001

500

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 2B views before 2027?

Jan 18, 8:48 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

10.19%chance

202644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1748

832

Will Sam Altman know who I am? (5 year time frame)

May 3, 4:40 AMJan 4, 12:59 PM

48.8%chance

381451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1309

343

Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027

Feb 9, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.79%chance

12669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

698

Will JerryRigEveryting be able to bend the iPhone Duo in half with his bare hands?

Sep 20, 5:31 AMOct 31, 10:59 PM

61.5%chance

7441

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1264

791

Will AI-enhanced video-editing software automatically slow-down frame rate of fast-scrolled videos by EOY 2027?

Feb 28, 7:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

111

Will AI figure out who has the highest visual frame compression efficiency to working memory ratio by 2030?

Sep 11, 12:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

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