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Prediction markets for Frame AI

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

2333334

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

65

56

39

15

5

0

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3818973

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

54

52

44

35

17

0

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

20.97%chance

467509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1959

462

When will AI forecasting crush human superforecasters?

Jul 7, 4:56 AMJul 1, 7:00 AM

376996

OptionProbability

After June 2028

July 2027 to June 2028

Before July 2027

48

36

16

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 5B views before 2027?

Jan 18, 8:55 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

5%chance

254881

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3111

760

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.15%chance

213277

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2222

450

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 2B views before 2027?

Jan 18, 8:48 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.88%chance

202694

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1798

826

Will Sam Altman know who I am? (5 year time frame)

May 3, 4:40 AMJan 4, 12:59 PM

31.97%chance

431883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1524

197

Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027

Feb 9, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.79%chance

12669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

698

Will Sesame Smart Glasses have a wave guide visual display?

Oct 28, 3:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.83%chance

6134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

920

Will AI-enhanced video-editing software automatically slow-down frame rate of fast-scrolled videos by EOY 2027?

Feb 28, 7:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

111

Will AI figure out who has the highest visual frame compression efficiency to working memory ratio by 2030?

Sep 11, 12:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

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