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Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

1.88%chance

18141118911

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102031

3309

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 500M views before 2026?

Jan 9, 2:03 PMJan 1, 6:11 PM

23.06%chance

7831018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1551

741

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2714033

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

51

48

43

41

34

10

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2026?

Jan 5, 12:53 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

9.1%chance

679163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3015

502

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

64.71%chance

305306

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1285

789

Black Mirror Season 7 [Prop bets/Megamarket]

Mar 20, 7:40 PMDec 31, 6:59 AM

304746

OptionProbability

Actor with Oscar nomination plays a role

All episodes released at once

Something from the season nominated for an Emmy

Average episode rating ≥7.0 on IMDB EOY 2025

Average episode rating ≥7.5 on IMDB EOY 2025

Somebody doubting whether another robot/human is a robot or human

The words "black" and "mirror" are spoken in the same sentence

Bonus episode outside of the original 6

Aaron Paul plays a role

First episode drops in Q4-2025

First episode drops in Q3-2025

Something from the season wins an Emmy award

An episode is more than 5% frames from generative AI

100

100

100

95

95

86

17

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)

Mar 25, 10:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

82.39%chance

473852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2174

415

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 5B views before 2027?

Jan 18, 8:55 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

8.57%chance

181812

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1934

842

Will Sam Altman know who I am? (5 year time frame)

May 3, 4:40 AMJan 4, 12:59 PM

49.69%chance

371441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

353

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 2B views before 2027?

Jan 18, 8:48 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

29.25%chance

16991

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

615

Will AI-enhanced video-editing software automatically slow-down frame rate of fast-scrolled videos by EOY 2027?

Feb 28, 7:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

111

Will AI figure out who has the highest visual frame compression efficiency to working memory ratio by 2030?

Sep 11, 12:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

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