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Prediction markets for Frame AI

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

2231111

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

65

56

42

21

7

0

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3818973

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

54

52

44

35

17

0

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" earns more than $170M in domestic gross earnings during their second weekend?

Aug 5, 12:27 PMAug 11, 5:00 PM

3.16%chance

268082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5536

181

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

43.83%chance

446552

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1180

817

When will AI forecasting crush human superforecasters?

Jul 7, 4:56 AMJul 1, 7:00 AM

315230

OptionProbability

After June 2028

July 2027 to June 2028

Before July 2027

54

36

10

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 5B views before 2027?

Jan 18, 8:55 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

7.2%chance

232988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2260

814

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.3%chance

191801

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

864

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 2B views before 2027?

Jan 18, 8:48 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

14.45%chance

201689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1268

898

Will Sam Altman know who I am? (5 year time frame)

May 3, 4:40 AMJan 4, 12:59 PM

49.69%chance

371441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

353

Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027

Feb 9, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.79%chance

12669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

698

Will AI-enhanced video-editing software automatically slow-down frame rate of fast-scrolled videos by EOY 2027?

Feb 28, 7:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

111

Will AI figure out who has the highest visual frame compression efficiency to working memory ratio by 2030?

Sep 11, 12:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

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