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Prediction markets for Frame AI

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2714038

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

51

48

43

41

34

10

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1411132

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

62

53

43

29

10

5

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 500M views before 2027?

Jan 9, 2:13 PMJan 1, 6:11 PM

95.65%chance

248319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

742

28

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

56.75%chance

375627

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

924

Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)

Mar 25, 10:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

83.08%chance

483902

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2224

404

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 5B views before 2027?

Jan 18, 8:55 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

8.6%chance

191814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1929

842

Will Sam Altman know who I am? (5 year time frame)

May 3, 4:40 AMJan 4, 12:59 PM

49.69%chance

371441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

353

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 2B views before 2027?

Jan 18, 8:48 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

23%chance

181182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

800

US passes $500B+ "AI unemployment" stimulus by 2029?

Nov 26, 3:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.89%chance

4160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

38

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.61%chance

334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Will AI-enhanced video-editing software automatically slow-down frame rate of fast-scrolled videos by EOY 2027?

Feb 28, 7:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

111

Will AI figure out who has the highest visual frame compression efficiency to working memory ratio by 2030?

Sep 11, 12:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

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