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Prediction markets for Frame AI

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3717754

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

51

49

41

36

26

0

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1511432

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

63

54

42

28

9

5

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

48%chance

406304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

893

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 5B views before 2027?

Jan 18, 8:55 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

8.75%chance

192344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1899

845

Will Sam Altman know who I am? (5 year time frame)

May 3, 4:40 AMJan 4, 12:59 PM

49.69%chance

371441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

353

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 2B views before 2027?

Jan 18, 8:48 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

18.15%chance

191439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

947

Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027

Feb 9, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.72%chance

11469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1232

812

Will trump sign the release of UFOs files

Mar 3, 8:28 PMApr 9, 11:59 PM

55%chance

5215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

49

39

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.61%chance

334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Will AI-enhanced video-editing software automatically slow-down frame rate of fast-scrolled videos by EOY 2027?

Feb 28, 7:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

111

Will AI figure out who has the highest visual frame compression efficiency to working memory ratio by 2030?

Sep 11, 12:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

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