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In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)
Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
80.91%chance
11225182
OptionVotes
1618
741
What's an unconventional opinion or idea that you've encountered which most people might not agree with? [FREE RESPONSE]
Oct 9, 8:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
6114004
OptionProbability
21
19
12
6
4
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?
Feb 13, 8:46 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM
73.72%chance
7511924
OptionVotes
2338
983
Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?
Jan 20, 12:17 AMFeb 1, 5:59 AM
76.05%chance
236874
OptionVotes
1782
561
By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess?
May 19, 8:29 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM
50.18%chance
171774
OptionVotes
1030
965
Will any American citizen be extradited to the UK or elsewhere for free speech by 2040 end?
Aug 10, 8:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
35.45%chance
71416
OptionVotes
1349
741
Will Manifold take down any user content due to legal threats that violate free speech principles before 2030?
Mar 6, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
33.5%chance
71095
OptionVotes
1409
710
Will an ungoverned free society exist anywhere on Earth for at least one year before 2040?
Feb 13, 11:44 PMJan 21, 9:59 PM
24.46%chance
23972
OptionVotes
1062
953
When this market closes, will I believe that healthcare should be free at the point of use? (This market has a 10% chance of closing each year)
Nov 16, 2:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
70.37%chance
21964
OptionVotes
1669
1249
Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?
Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.7%chance
15616
OptionVotes
1403
713
Will the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement be ratified by the end of 2025?
Dec 7, 2:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
48.05%chance
6338
OptionVotes
1040
962
If I find a violation of universal free fall, will I come up with a promising tentative explanation?
Jan 4, 3:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
30.16%chance
16283
OptionVotes
1001
963