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Prediction markets for French AI

Ww3 with nuclear

Mar 7, 12:30 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.05%chance

186910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

564

18

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.02%chance

504175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1528

654

Will the next president of France be from Parti Socialiste?

Mar 23, 11:51 AMApr 24, 11:59 PM

24.79%chance

101927

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1971

895

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

752

Which Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?

Dec 25, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11284

OptionProbability

China will dominate the global economy.

The trade war will broaden.

The AI bubble will NOT pop.

More and more governments will hit a debt limit.

China will blockade Taiwan.

72

59

58

44

5

From which country will originate the AI that first passes Manifold AI's high quality Turing Test?

Aug 28, 6:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8282

OptionProbability

United States

China

France

United Kingdom

Other

58

24

7

6

4

Will the next French aircraft carrier be (initially) named after a woman?

Apr 9, 12:54 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

18.19%chance

5258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

336

79

Will the next French presidential elections (2027) take place without any major democratic problems because of AI?

Sep 10, 8:41 PMMay 31, 9:59 PM

75.61%chance

8200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

271

179

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

Feb 20, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.6%chance

10139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

Will Jean-Pierre Serre live to 100?

Mar 14, 11:14 PMSep 15, 11:59 PM

79.26%chance

348

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

86

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