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Prediction markets for French government

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.1%chance

8225584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4756

624

Will France recognize Palestine by EOY2025?

Apr 10, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.71%chance

422733

OptionVotes

NO

YES

333

30

France recognizes Palestine by end of September?

May 26, 9:52 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

93.68%chance

341966

OptionVotes

NO

YES

385

26

Will any European country formally recognize a Palestinian state between June and December 2025?

Jun 6, 12:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.32%chance

161572

OptionVotes

NO

YES

511

20

How many predictions did the FT writers get wrong for 2025?

Jan 5, 4:19 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

31268

OptionProbability

6

5

7

4

3

2

9 or more

0

1

8

35

17

16

12

6

4

3

2

2

2

Will a Druze state exist by the end of 2030?

Feb 26, 12:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

28.8%chance

14953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3444

2686

Will Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?

Aug 24, 7:17 PMApr 10, 9:59 PM

20.09%chance

6211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

199

50

Will Macron begin a third term as President of France before 2038?

Jul 4, 2:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.58%chance

4209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

52

Which of these French rocket start-ups will achieve orbit before 2029?

Mar 25, 9:14 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

4183

OptionProbability

MaiaSpace

HyPrSpace

Latitude

Sirius Space Services

34

32

32

32

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