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Prediction markets for French government

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.73%chance

9531769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4074

648

Will the next president of France be from Parti Socialiste?

Mar 23, 11:51 AMApr 24, 11:59 PM

13.11%chance

152683

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2449

111

Will a Druze state exist by the end of 2030?

Feb 26, 12:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

25.92%chance

161382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3788

2556

Wagerup gallium T12M production exceeds 10 tonnes as of Q2 2027

Jan 12, 5:58 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

45.21%chance

6589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

909

Will Macron begin a third term as President of France before 2038?

Jul 4, 2:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.88%chance

9416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

38

Which Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?

Dec 25, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11292

OptionProbability

China will dominate the global economy.

The AI bubble will NOT pop.

The trade war will broaden.

More and more governments will hit a debt limit.

China will blockade Taiwan.

72

63

59

44

5

Will Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?

Aug 24, 7:17 PMApr 10, 9:59 PM

15%chance

8270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Which of these French rocket start-ups will achieve orbit before 2029?

Mar 25, 9:14 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

4183

OptionProbability

MaiaSpace

HyPrSpace

Latitude

Sirius Space Services

34

32

32

32

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

Feb 20, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

10154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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