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Prediction markets for French government

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.74%chance

9431761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4066

649

Est ce que Macron démissionnera en 2026

Dec 21, 7:27 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

7.73%chance

173401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

80

Will the next president of France be from Parti Socialiste?

Mar 23, 11:51 AMApr 24, 11:59 PM

20.96%chance

102121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2236

816

Will a Druze state exist by the end of 2030?

Feb 26, 12:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

25.59%chance

151367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3832

2541

Wagerup gallium T12M production exceeds 10 tonnes as of Q2 2027

Jan 12, 5:58 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

45.11%chance

6569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

907

Will Macron begin a third term as President of France before 2038?

Jul 4, 2:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.88%chance

9416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

38

Which Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?

Dec 25, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11284

OptionProbability

China will dominate the global economy.

The trade war will broaden.

The AI bubble will NOT pop.

More and more governments will hit a debt limit.

China will blockade Taiwan.

72

59

58

44

5

Will Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?

Aug 24, 7:17 PMApr 10, 9:59 PM

15%chance

8270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Which of these French rocket start-ups will achieve orbit before 2029?

Mar 25, 9:14 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

4183

OptionProbability

MaiaSpace

HyPrSpace

Latitude

Sirius Space Services

34

32

32

32

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

Feb 20, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.6%chance

10139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

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