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Top stories

World Athletics Nears 100% Gene Testing Compliance for Tokyo Women’s Events

World Athletics Nears 100% Gene Testing Compliance for Tokyo Women’s Events

Authors

6

3 months ago

Germany, France, Spain Set October Talks to Salvage €100 Billion FCAS Jet

Germany, France, Spain Set October Talks to Salvage €100 Billion FCAS Jet

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13

3 months ago

Macron Vows to Finish 2027 Term as Franco-German Summit Backs Ukraine

Macron Vows to Finish 2027 Term as Franco-German Summit Backs Ukraine

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16

3 months ago

Macron, Merz Lead European Condemnation of Kyiv Strikes That Kill 14 Civilians

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21

3 months ago

French Unions Call 18 September Strikes Over Bayrou’s 2026 Budget

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15

3 months ago

Bayrou Blames Boomers for France’s Debt, Backlash Mounts Before Confidence Vote

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7

3 months ago

Lavrov and Germany’s Merz Rule Out Imminent Putin-Zelensky Summit

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26

3 months ago

US Foreign Policy

UN Security Council Sets 2026 Exit Date for Lebanon Peacekeepers

Authors

25

3 months ago

Prediction markets for French

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election?

Apr 9, 1:32 AMMay 7, 11:59 PM

9.35%chance

5918992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2701

610

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election

Nov 16, 8:05 PMMay 21, 3:59 AM

8.47%chance

3710957

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3163

523

Will the French President of the Republic dissolve the National Assembly again before the end of 2025 ?

Jul 18, 8:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10.09%chance

309580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2985

335

Will Emmanuel Macron change the French constitution to be able to run for a third term in a row?

Oct 19, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4.53%chance

293929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2190

875

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be candidate to the french presidential election in 2027

Feb 8, 12:15 AMJul 1, 9:59 PM

59.22%chance

282284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1396

504

Will "🇫🇷 Announcing CeSIA: The French Center for ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 23, 11:20 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

4.78%chance

31750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2750

848

Will a non specialized AI assistant master French grammar rule of "L'accord du participe passé" at the end of 2025 ?

Dec 10, 9:33 AMDec 31, 10:00 PM

60.44%chance

311698

OptionVotes

NO

YES

983

969

Will the French believe Intelligence Artificielle (IA) to be an existential risk, by 2030?

Sep 2, 6:37 AMJan 1, 7:28 AM

59.57%chance

271309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

942

Will "Introduction to French AI Policy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 11, 10:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.13%chance

41301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2194

880

Reform UK, French National Rally, and AfD all in power simultaneously this decade?

Sep 18, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.44%chance

41265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

265

38

Will Lebanon return to a French Mandate before 2030?

Nov 8, 5:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.81%chance

17893

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1680

904

Will there be a french Sixth republic by 2040?

Aug 17, 4:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.88%chance

23689

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

868

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