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Prediction markets for Friend

Will our friend J. get a 6-pack by his wedding in 14 months?

Aug 7, 5:04 PMOct 31, 5:01 PM

58.16%chance

132336

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1179

848

Will there be an AI Companion app (friend, girlfriend, partner etc.) with 500 Million users before 2035? 🤖❤🧍‍♂️🤝💻

Apr 13, 4:57 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

67.81%chance

351265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

932

Will my friend deid91 have success on Twitch by 2027?

May 18, 11:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.68%chance

91020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2020

495

Before 2027, will I enjoy playing Minecraft w/ an AI while voice calling comparably to playing over call with a friend?

Dec 19, 6:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.43%chance

15939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1676

602

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

Where will my single hot friend find her man?

Nov 9, 7:10 PMDec 31, 6:43 PM

14574

OptionProbability

Other

At an EA (Effective Altruism) conference

LessWrong (LW) Meetup

Bay Area Taco Tuesday

Manifold Markets Manifest

Secular Solstice

66

7

7

7

7

6

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

893

Will my friends Eliot and Serene still be married in 10 years from now?

Mar 13, 11:52 AMMar 13, 12:59 PM

90.15%chance

5345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

397

88

Will two of my friends break up by the end of the semester?

Jan 20, 9:45 AMJul 2, 11:59 PM

51%chance

3139

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

980

Will Facebook increase its friend limit beyond 5000 friends by 2028?

Apr 27, 3:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.66%chance

473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

90

Will Stephen Hsu's kids become friends with Bryan Caplan's kids?

Mar 11, 2:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.69%chance

452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

100

Will my friend Deepta have at least one child by the end of 2029?

Oct 19, 4:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.92%chance

26

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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