FrontierMath News

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.22%chance

270269974

OptionVotes

YES

5677

4517

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Nov 8, 11:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35%chance

9038240

OptionVotes

YES

1363

734

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2325737

OptionProbability

50-60%

60-70%

70-80%

40-50%

80-90%

30-40%

≥90%

<30%

Highest Epoch-acknowledged FrontierMath score at EOY2026?

Apr 12, 6:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1723095

OptionProbability

70 - 79.99%

80 - 89.99%

60 - 69.99%

50 - 59.99%

40 - 49.99%

90 - 100%

20 - 29.99%

30 - 39.99%

10 - 19.99%

By when will AI score >= 80% on FrontierMath

Nov 8, 9:58 PMNov 16, 7:59 AM

4712431

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2030

2035

2050

2024

Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 7:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.67%chance

456069

OptionVotes

YES

1094

919

Which AI company first solves FrontierMath 85%?

Dec 24, 2:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

323342

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google

Anthropic

Other

Any FrontierMath Open Problems problem solved before March?

Jan 27, 6:40 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

41%chance

252127

OptionVotes

YES

1200

834

Before what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?

Jan 7, 4:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

101622

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2035

Jan 1, 2030

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2026

What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?

Nov 11, 11:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

161504

OptionProbability

Transformer-based architecture

Developed by OpenAI

Part of the GPT-N family of models (GPT-5, GPT-6, and variations)

Developed by Google Deepmind

Over 1T parameters

Part of the AlphaProof family of models (AlphaProof N and variations)

Narrow domain of knowledge. ie Does not know random facts such as when Google was founded, or who won the 1960 presidential election.

Developed by a non-British and non-American company

Part of the o1 family of models (o1, o2, etc. and variations)

Based on Symbolic AI (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbolic_artificial_intelligence)

Energy-based Model (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy-based_model)

Benchmark Gap #8: Once a single AI gets >= 80% on FrontierMath Tier 4, how long until an AI publishes a math paper?

Jul 16, 7:36 AMDec 31, 8:30 AM

10337

OptionProbability

0 - 11

12 - 23

24 - 35

36 - 47

48 - 59

60 - 71

72 - 83

84 - 95

96 - 107

108 - 119

120+

Will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?

Dec 28, 4:25 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

81.99%chance

9275

OptionVotes

YES

246

114

FrontierMath News

Prediction markets for FrontierMath

Prediction markets for FrontierMath

Prediction markets for FrontierMath

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

Highest Epoch-acknowledged FrontierMath score at EOY2026?

By when will AI score >= 80% on FrontierMath

Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Which AI company first solves FrontierMath 85%?

Any FrontierMath Open Problems problem solved before March?

Before what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?

What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?

Benchmark Gap #8: Once a single AI gets >= 80% on FrontierMath Tier 4, how long until an AI publishes a math paper?

Will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?

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