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Prediction markets for FrontierMath

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.47%chance

292287764

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7849

3528

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Nov 8, 11:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.08%chance

11442405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

687

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3340376

OptionProbability

60-70%

70-80%

50-60%

80-90%

40-50%

≥90%

30-40%

<30%

29

25

19

11

8

4

3

1

Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 7:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39%chance

608337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1254

802

Which AI company first solves FrontierMath 85%?

Dec 24, 2:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

343646

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

Other

Meta

xAI

38

27

24

5

3

3

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?

Jan 7, 4:48 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

102506

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2029

2030-2034

2026

2025

31

23

21

21

3

1

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?

Jun 21, 5:30 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

122323

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2028-2029

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

39

23

11

8

7

6

6

Before what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?

Jan 7, 4:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

111872

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2030

Jan 1, 2035

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2026

49

17

12

10

9

4

Will AI models solve at least 2 FrontierMath Open Problems before 2027?

Mar 23, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75%chance

211142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

422

372

Will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?

Dec 28, 4:25 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

91.63%chance

10475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

446

86

Will an LLM score >=85% on FrontierMath Tier 4 before 2028?

Feb 27, 11:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87%chance

10268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

259

39

Which Epoch AI FrontierMath open problem will be solved next?

Apr 23, 1:16 PMDec 31, 2:02 PM

180

OptionProbability

Hadamard Matrices

Ramsey Numbers for Book Graphs

Finiteness Problem for Diophantine Equations

Problem marked "Solid result"

Problem marked "Major advance" or "Breakthrough"

26

26

26

13

9

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