FrontierMath News

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.46%chance

283283146

OptionVotes

YES

6817

3928

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Nov 8, 11:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.71%chance

10641414

OptionVotes

YES

1402

713

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3035771

OptionProbability

60-70%

70-80%

50-60%

80-90%

40-50%

30-40%

≥90%

<30%

Which of FrontierMath and Humanity's Last Exam will be saturated (>80%) first?

Jan 24, 4:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5122367

OptionProbability

FrontierMath

Humanity's Last Exam

By when will AI score >= 80% on FrontierMath

Nov 8, 9:58 PMNov 16, 7:59 AM

5113054

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2035

2050

2025

2024

Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 7:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.14%chance

587850

OptionVotes

YES

1062

947

Will an AI model solve a FrontierMath Open Problem before 2027?

Mar 8, 12:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.97%chance

386598

OptionVotes

YES

2996

334

Before what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?

Jan 7, 4:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

101622

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2035

Jan 1, 2030

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2026

What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028?

Nov 11, 11:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81358

OptionProbability

Over 1T parameters

Transformer-based architecture

Part of the AlphaProof family of models (AlphaProof N and variations)

Developed by OpenAI

Developed by Google Deepmind

Part of the o1 family of models (o1, o2, etc. and variations)

Developed by a non-British and non-American company

Narrow domain of knowledge. ie Does not know random facts such as when Google was founded, or who won the 1960 presidential election.

Part of the GPT-N family of models (GPT-5, GPT-6, and variations)

Energy-based Model (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy-based_model)

Based on Symbolic AI (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbolic_artificial_intelligence)

Will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?

Dec 28, 4:25 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

91.63%chance

10475

OptionVotes

YES

446

Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?

Dec 29, 8:34 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

73.22%chance

10438

OptionVotes

YES

295

106

Will Epoch AI accept Archivara's proposed solution to this FrontierMath Open Problem?

Mar 10, 7:12 PMApr 9, 7:09 PM

67%chance

10139

OptionVotes

YES

142

FrontierMath News

Prediction markets for FrontierMath

Prediction markets for FrontierMath

Prediction markets for FrontierMath

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

Which of FrontierMath and Humanity's Last Exam will be saturated (>80%) first?

By when will AI score >= 80% on FrontierMath

Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Will an AI model solve a FrontierMath Open Problem before 2027?

Before what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?

What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028?

Will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?

Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?

Will Epoch AI accept Archivara's proposed solution to this FrontierMath Open Problem?

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