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Prediction markets for Full Member

Will Palestine become a full United Nations member state before 2030?

Nov 17, 7:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.79%chance

333081

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1976

739

When will Palestine become a full member of the United Nations?

Apr 2, 2:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

152163

OptionProbability

Other

2026

2027

2028

2025

2024

81

5

5

5

2

1

Will any NATO member country invoke Article 4 by the end of 2030?

Sep 29, 3:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.61%chance

251075

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

894

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.54%chance

8940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1708

586

Will Manifold Staff rule that the POTUS is the President in this circumstance*?

Mar 11, 1:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.22%chance

3705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1205

830

Will the UK rejoin the European Union by 2040?

Mar 31, 8:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.75%chance

17407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

969

If I die, will I be successfully cryopreserved?

Jul 24, 9:53 PMDec 31, 10:46 PM

60.34%chance

7337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

Will East Timor be a full ASEAN member before 2026?

May 19, 7:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.28%chance

8214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

220

99

Will a nation in Europe which is not currently a full UN member state gain that status by 2035.

Feb 27, 5:18 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

73.22%chance

7121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

278

124

Which countries will join the European Space Agency as full members before 2031?

Mar 11, 7:38 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

386

OptionProbability

Latvia

Lithuania

Slovakia

Bulgaria

Croatia

Canada

Cyprus

Malta

55

54

52

41

36

34

28

28

What will the dollar price of a full-body cryopreservation for a lifetime member of the Cryonics Institute be in 2030?

Mar 13, 5:50 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

85.17%chance

341

OptionProbability

NO

YES

311

310

What will the dollar price of a full-body cryopreservation for a lifetime member of the Cryonics Institute be in 2040?

Mar 13, 5:50 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

81.82%chance

213

OptionProbability

YES

NO

271

267

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