Full Self Driving News

YES

Telsa

Waymo

Other

Have a front facing bumper camera.

Have a steering wheel.

Have a screen in the back row.

Run on a AI4/HW4 computer.

Run on a AI5 computer.

NO

NO

Nov-Dec 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

Jan-Feb 2026

Mar-Apr 2026

Paid autonomous ride-sharing service launch in Austin in June '25

>90% robotaxis marketshare in '26

>1m of autonomous robotaxis in second half of '26

YES

2026

2027

2028+

YES

0 - 0.1 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

0.1 - 0.5 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

0.5 - 1 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

1 - 10 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

10 - 100 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

full self driving cars that can work anywhere in the world

Supersonic commercial jets in use

internet everywhere on earth

cures for major diseases (at least 2, 'major' as determined by manifold poll)

super human ai (as defined by the manifold poll)