Full Self Driving News

YES

Telsa

Waymo

Other

Have a front facing bumper camera.

Have a screen in the back row.

Have a steering wheel.

Run on a AI4/HW4 computer.

Run on a AI5 computer.

NO

NO

Nov-Dec 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

May-Jun 2026

Jan-Feb 2026

Paid autonomous ride-sharing service launch in Austin in June '25

>1m of autonomous robotaxis in second half of '26

>90% robotaxis marketshare in '26

YES

2026

2027

2028+

YES

1 million Optimus bots delivered

20 million Tesla vehicles delivered

10 million active FSD subscriptions

$50 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)

$80 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)

$130 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)

At least 6 milestones achieved by 2035

Fewer than 6 milestones achieved by 2035

$210 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)

1 million Robotaxis in commercial operations

$300 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)

Tesla ceases operations before 2035

$400 billion Adjusted EBITDA (sustained over four consecutive quarters)

full self driving cars that can work anywhere in the world

Supersonic commercial jets in use

internet everywhere on earth

cures for major diseases (at least 2, 'major' as determined by manifold poll)

super human ai (as defined by the manifold poll)