Full Self Driving News

YES

Telsa

Waymo

Other

Have a front facing bumper camera.

Have a screen in the back row.

Have a steering wheel.

Run on a AI4/HW4 computer.

Run on a AI5 computer.

NO

NO

YES

Paid autonomous ride-sharing service launch in Austin in June '25

unsupervised full self-driving in consumer vehicles before '26

>1m of autonomous robotaxis in second half of '26

2027

2026

2028+

YES

NO

full self driving cars that can work anywhere in the world

Supersonic commercial jets in use

internet everywhere on earth

cures for major diseases (at least 2, 'major' as determined by manifold poll)

super human ai (as defined by the manifold poll)

0 - 0.1 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

100+ thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

1 - 10 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

0.1 - 0.5 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

0.5 - 1 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages