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Prediction markets for Function

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84.77%chance

1821110350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

785

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

Jan 23, 12:10 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

26.23%chance

7974410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

925

Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.26%chance

8310037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2833

766

Will there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031?

Dec 11, 5:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.3%chance

318258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1417

708

By 2073, will it be possible for humans to regrow functional, fully biological limbs?

Feb 11, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.38%chance

236988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1798

357

Will we have a functioning, energy-producing, nuclear fusion reactor by 2033?

Oct 20, 9:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.5%chance

665702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

946

AI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions

May 1, 12:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.85%chance

241283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

960

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

Will someone win the Healthspan XPRIZE of 101m restoring muscle, cognition, immune function by minimum 10yrs by 2030?

Nov 29, 11:58 PMDec 7, 7:59 AM

27.95%chance

9442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1484

1113

Will AI take over density functional theory by 2035?

Nov 27, 1:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.05%chance

10358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

880

Will Bryan Johnson test the functional age of his T cells/ hepatocytes via functional assays by 2028? (#NewLimit)

May 24, 10:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.36%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

954

Will "We need a field of Reward Function Design" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 5:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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