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Prediction markets for Function

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84%chance

1781110219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

745

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

Jan 23, 12:10 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

28.08%chance

7774340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

951

Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25%chance

8310020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2851

760

By 2073, will it be possible for humans to regrow functional, fully biological limbs?

Feb 11, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.38%chance

236988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1798

357

Will there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031?

Dec 11, 5:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.69%chance

255862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1903

527

AI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions

May 1, 12:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.51%chance

231278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

955

Will in-vitro gametogenesis be used to produce a functional embryo by 2028?

May 25, 7:09 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

56.9%chance

61177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

870

Will Phase 2A of the Blue Line Metro in Bangalore be functional by 2028?

Jan 8, 3:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

3647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

Will someone win the Healthspan XPRIZE of 101m restoring muscle, cognition, immune function by minimum 10yrs by 2030?

Nov 29, 11:58 PMDec 7, 7:59 AM

27.95%chance

9442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1484

1113

Will AI take over density functional theory by 2035?

Nov 27, 1:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.05%chance

10358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

880

Will Bryan Johnson test the functional age of his T cells/ hepatocytes via functional assays by 2028? (#NewLimit)

May 24, 10:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.36%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

954

Will "We need a field of Reward Function Design" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 5:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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