Function Calling News

Who will be the next British Prime Minister following a General Election?

Sep 29, 9:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9282207

OptionProbability

Nigel Farage

Other

Keir Starmer

Robert Jenrick

Kemi Badenoch

Andy Burnham

Angela Rayner

Ed Miliband

Wes Streeting

Matt Clifford

James Cleverly

Rupert Lowe

Zack Polanski

Ed Davey

Boris Johnson

Louise Haigh

Lawrence Newport

Rachel Reeves

Danny Kruger

Jeremy Clarkson

Jeremy Corbyn

Richard Tice

Idris Elba

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

599478

OptionProbability

2030

2035+

2029

2028

2031

2032

2027

2033

2034

2026

2025

When will I first be able to read a book while driving a private car?

Mar 21, 9:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

253860

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2026

2030

2031+

2025

Grok uses Telegram channels as one of content sources by mid-2026?

May 31, 10:10 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

49.88%chance

81152

OptionVotes

YES

1007

1003

What method of storing my passwords should I use?

Apr 18, 4:12 AMJan 2, 5:03 AM

24891

OptionProbability

If I use a password manager, will I judge it to have been the better choice in 3 years?

If I use a password generator, will I judge it to have been the better choice in 3 years?

If I use a password scheme, will I judge it to have been the better choice in 3 years?

Effy Stock

Apr 10, 9:45 AM

11673

OptionProbability

YES

245

Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?

Aug 5, 11:19 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

59.84%chance

20504

OptionVotes

YES

320

247

Will Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?

Aug 24, 7:17 PMApr 10, 9:59 PM

15%chance

8270

OptionVotes

YES

238

Will a popular forecasting platform accept function definitions as forecasting questions by Jan 1, 2028?

Aug 16, 3:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.58%chance

11221

OptionVotes

YES

294

136

Will the site (once) called Twitter still be functioning when Elon dies?

Aug 24, 4:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70.18%chance

6162

OptionVotes

YES

153

When there will be OS which able to run proof-carrying programs?

Jan 16, 9:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

2132

OptionProbability

[2028-2030)

≥2030

[2026,2028)

<2026

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

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Prediction markets for Function Calling

Who will be the next British Prime Minister following a General Election?

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

When will I first be able to read a book while driving a private car?

Grok uses Telegram channels as one of content sources by mid-2026?

What method of storing my passwords should I use?

Effy Stock

Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?

Will Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?

Will a popular forecasting platform accept function definitions as forecasting questions by Jan 1, 2028?

Will the site (once) called Twitter still be functioning when Elon dies?

When there will be OS which able to run proof-carrying programs?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

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