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Prediction markets for Function Calling

Who will be the next British Prime Minister following a General Election?

Sep 29, 9:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

141147240

OptionProbability

Andy Burnham

Nigel Farage

Kemi Badenoch

Angela Rayner

Zack Polanski

Other

Keir Starmer

Rupert Lowe

Jeremy Clarkson

Robert Jenrick

James Cleverly

Richard Tice

Ed Davey

Boris Johnson

Ed Miliband

Wes Streeting

Alistair Carns

Jeremy Corbyn

Idris Elba

Louise Haigh

Lawrence Newport

Rachel Reeves

Danny Kruger

Matt Clifford

33

32

11

4

4

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7510702

OptionProbability

2029

2030

2028

2035+

2031

2027

2032

2033

2026

2034

2025

18

16

14

14

10

9

7

5

4

3

0

When will I first be able to read a book while driving a private car?

Mar 21, 9:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

265009

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2031+

2029

2026

2030

2025

38

22

13

11

8

7

1

Grok uses Telegram channels as one of content sources by mid-2026?

May 31, 10:10 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

17.92%chance

162644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2151

470

Effy Stock

Apr 10, 9:45 AM

11673

OptionProbability

NO

YES

245

41

Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?

Aug 5, 11:19 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

59.84%chance

20504

OptionVotes

NO

YES

320

247

Will Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?

Aug 24, 7:17 PMApr 10, 9:59 PM

15%chance

8270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Will a popular forecasting platform accept function definitions as forecasting questions by Jan 1, 2028?

Aug 16, 3:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.58%chance

11221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

294

136

Will the site (once) called Twitter still be functioning when Elon dies?

Aug 24, 4:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70.18%chance

6162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

Will Hampshire College be open in 2028?

May 11, 5:03 PMSep 20, 10:59 PM

19.31%chance

6124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

49

Will an AI exec equate AGI to religious end-times in 2026?

Mar 21, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.77%chance

11119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

80

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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