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Prediction markets for Function Calling

Who will be the next British Prime Minister following a General Election?

Sep 29, 9:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

154162552

OptionProbability

Andy Burnham

Nigel Farage

Kemi Badenoch

Other

Zack Polanski

Robert Jenrick

Angela Rayner

Rupert Lowe

Jeremy Clarkson

James Cleverly

Richard Tice

Ed Davey

Boris Johnson

Rachel Reeves

Matt Clifford

Ed Miliband

Wes Streeting

Alistair Carns

Keir Starmer

Jeremy Corbyn

Idris Elba

Louise Haigh

Lawrence Newport

Danny Kruger

37

26

11

5

4

3

3

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9317484

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2035+

2029

2030

2026

2031

2032

2033

2034

2025

34

17

11

9

8

7

6

4

3

2

0

When will I first be able to read a book while driving a private car?

Mar 21, 9:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

265259

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2031+

2029

2030

2026

2025

40

23

13

11

7

5

1

Will the FDA publicly accept a multi-condition geroscience endpoint as sufficient to establish efficacy before 2036?

Jul 14, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.59%chance

7575

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6240

5801

How low will the constant in the deterministic latent existence bound get by the end of September?

Aug 16, 8:07 AMOct 14, 11:59 PM

6559

OptionProbability

2≤C<10

10≤C<100

Below 2

100≤C<1000

64

29

4

3

Will Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?

Aug 24, 7:17 PMApr 10, 9:59 PM

5.15%chance

8470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

429

23

Will an AI exec equate AGI to religious end-times in 2026?

Mar 21, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24%chance

15451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

83

Will the FDA publicly accept a multi-condition geroscience endpoint as sufficient to establish efficacy before 2041?

Jul 14, 11:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.17%chance

2255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1255

797

Will the site (once) called Twitter still be functioning when Elon dies?

Aug 24, 4:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.56%chance

6252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243

41

Will Hampshire College be open in 2028?

May 11, 5:03 PMSep 20, 10:59 PM

8.81%chance

6225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

322

31

When there will be OS which able to run proof-carrying programs?

Jan 16, 9:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

2132

OptionProbability

[2028-2030)

≥2030

[2026,2028)

<2026

35

35

26

3

Will the FDA publicly accept a multi-condition geroscience endpoint as sufficient to establish efficacy before 2031?

Jul 14, 11:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

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