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Prediction markets for Fund of Funds

Will the fed funds rate be below 4% at anytime by the end of 2026?

Oct 17, 11:18 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

98.79%chance

2963622

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11829

384

Will $1mn USD worth of funds be lost as a result of fraud committed by Binance? (Before 2030)

May 23, 3:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.97%chance

2210553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

967

797

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

When is the first installment of customer funds going to be reimbursed by FTX? [ADD RESPONSES]

Feb 28, 8:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

143829

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2026

Before Jan 2025

Before Jun 2024

Before Sep 2024

99

9

0

0

Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met.

Sep 22, 6:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.74%chance

201289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1647

825

What percentage of FTX Future Fund grant funds will ultimately be returned/clawed back?

Feb 9, 2:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.04%chance

12728

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1258

854

Will any lawmakers use the threat of AI to justify funding space exploration before 2026?

Apr 22, 5:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.08%chance

17700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

918

Will "Store Now Decrypt Later" attacks be responsible for the theft of >$1B of funds by 2030?

Mar 20, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.82%chance

11682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1566

812

Will the majority of developed nations prioritize funding for longevity research over space exploration by 2035?

Jun 29, 5:49 AMJul 7, 4:59 AM

39.88%chance

10494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

814

Before 2037, will a major presidential candidate make cutting off funding to Israel part of their platform?

Sep 28, 4:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.47%chance

10309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1211

826

Will any fund eclipse the size of the SoftBank Vision Fund by 2030?

Dec 9, 8:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63.16%chance

14134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

972

Will >50% of total allocated funding to clean energy provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act be gutted by 2028?

Jul 16, 5:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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