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Prediction markets for Fund of Funds

Will $1mn USD worth of funds be lost as a result of fraud committed by Binance? (Before 2030)

May 23, 3:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.97%chance

2210553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

967

797

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.82%chance

1910007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7878

2845

Who will be the next Executive Director of the Global Fund?

Aug 7, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

116688

OptionProbability

Any other person

Mark Dybul

Ashwin Vasan

John Nkengasong

Matshidiso Moeti

William Steiger

Helen Clark

37

15

11

11

11

9

5

Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met.

Sep 22, 6:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.76%chance

213789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4147

600

Will any lawmakers use the threat of AI to justify funding space exploration before 2026?

Apr 22, 5:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.63%chance

181450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1945

783

What percentage of FTX Future Fund grant funds will ultimately be returned/clawed back?

Feb 9, 2:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.04%chance

12728

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1258

854

Will "Store Now Decrypt Later" attacks be responsible for the theft of >$1B of funds by 2030?

Mar 20, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.82%chance

11682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1566

812

Will the majority of developed nations prioritize funding for longevity research over space exploration by 2035?

Jun 29, 5:49 AMJul 7, 4:59 AM

39.88%chance

10494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

814

Before 2037, will a major presidential candidate make cutting off funding to Israel part of their platform?

Sep 28, 4:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.23%chance

11409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1311

763

Will any fund eclipse the size of the SoftBank Vision Fund by 2030?

Dec 9, 8:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62%chance

17233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

990

Will >50% of total allocated funding to clean energy provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act be gutted by 2028?

Jul 16, 5:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.75%chance

3128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

909

Will any DeSci DAO fund any IP which produces $10m of revenue by 2030

Aug 30, 8:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

53.22%chance

3101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

73

67

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