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Prediction markets for Futures

Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to future poll)

Jul 23, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

33081033

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Is Future (Nayvadius DeMun Wilburn) from the future?

Jan 20, 9:18 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

49.59%chance

242763

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

929

Will Michael Levin win a Nobel Prize any time in the future?

Jan 3, 8:10 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

43.84%chance

321876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

751

Will Elon Musk take Twitter public (IPO) anytime in the future?

Oct 31, 5:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.63%chance

16809

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

951

Will the UK ban smoking for future generations before the end of 2025?

Nov 2, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.47%chance

19776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

794

What percentage of FTX Future Fund grant funds will ultimately be returned/clawed back?

Feb 9, 2:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.04%chance

12728

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1258

854

Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI

Jun 18, 6:38 PMJun 18, 6:38 PM

70.11%chance

4700

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1534

656

Will future language models converge on "what Einstein would have thought of Many-Worlds?" before 2036?

Dec 28, 9:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

46.06%chance

17535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

943

Will AI lead to a dystopia future by 2100 (totalitarianism, disempowerment)?

May 19, 3:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.93%chance

12247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

964

Will the future Real Madrid soccer player Endrick Sousa achieve The Best FIFA Men's Player award before his 30s?

Feb 3, 3:26 AMJun 22, 2:59 AM

27.34%chance

10243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

965

Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?

May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.09%chance

14135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

1053

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