Futures News

Which AI future will we get?

May 1, 7:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10819596

OptionProbability

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

YES

2141

900

What's the future outcome for Mixpanel, the company?

Apr 14, 7:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52460

OptionProbability

Acquired by, or merged into, a (non-SPAC) public company

Going public (e.g. IPO, SPAC, Direct listing)

Other

Bankruptcy or going out of business

None of the other options happen by 2060

Will Michael Levin win a Nobel Prize any time in the future?

Jan 3, 8:10 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

46.98%chance

331926

OptionVotes

YES

1187

691

Will Trump effectively control policy of a future, 2029-2033 GoP president?

Aug 26, 6:19 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

28.67%chance

71175

OptionVotes

YES

1577

634

Will Elon Musk take Twitter public (IPO) anytime in the future?

Oct 31, 5:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.63%chance

16809

OptionVotes

YES

1010

951

Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI

Jun 18, 6:38 PMJun 18, 6:38 PM

63.84%chance

5800

OptionVotes

YES

1331

756

What percentage of FTX Future Fund grant funds will ultimately be returned/clawed back?

Feb 9, 2:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.04%chance

12728

OptionProbability

YES

1258

854

Will future language models converge on "what Einstein would have thought of Many-Worlds?" before 2036?

Dec 28, 9:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

46.06%chance

17535

OptionVotes

YES

1052

943

Will AI lead to a dystopia future by 2100 (totalitarianism, disempowerment)?

May 19, 3:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.93%chance

12247

OptionVotes

YES

1063

964

Will the future Real Madrid soccer player Endrick Sousa achieve The Best FIFA Men's Player award before his 30s?

Feb 3, 3:26 AMJun 22, 2:59 AM

27.34%chance

10243

OptionVotes

YES

1063

965

Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?

May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.09%chance

14135

OptionVotes

YES

1178

1053

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Prediction markets for Futures

Prediction markets for Futures

Which AI future will we get?

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

What's the future outcome for Mixpanel, the company?

Will Michael Levin win a Nobel Prize any time in the future?

Will Trump effectively control policy of a future, 2029-2033 GoP president?

Will Elon Musk take Twitter public (IPO) anytime in the future?

Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI

What percentage of FTX Future Fund grant funds will ultimately be returned/clawed back?

Will future language models converge on "what Einstein would have thought of Many-Worlds?" before 2036?

Will AI lead to a dystopia future by 2100 (totalitarianism, disempowerment)?

Will the future Real Madrid soccer player Endrick Sousa achieve The Best FIFA Men's Player award before his 30s?

Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?

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