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Prediction markets for Game II

Will I perform at Fyre Festival II?

Jan 12, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.08%chance

348649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10538

1545

Will Naughty Dog release The Last of Us Part III any time soon?

Jan 17, 10:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5592

OptionProbability

By 2026 or later

By 2025

Yes, by the end of Q2 2024

Yes, until the end of 2024

66

28

3

3

Benchmark Gap #2: Once we have an algorithm with human level sample efficiency for major RL benchmarks, how many years will it be before there is an algorithm with human level sample efficiency on essentially all AAA video game tasks?

Nov 9, 9:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

1.6%chance

7578

OptionProbability

YES

NO

924

375

Will "The Wayward Realms" be released as Early Access by EOY 2025?

Jun 6, 4:19 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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