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Prediction markets for Game of Games

In what state will the Kansas City Chiefs play a majority of their home games in the 2031 NFL season?

Jul 24, 2:54 AMJan 26, 5:59 AM

44553

OptionProbability

Missouri

Kansas

Other

56

43

1

Will a video game be played in the Olympics as an official event by the end of 2040?

May 7, 4:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.03%chance

241250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1259

469

Is the "Game of Thrones" theory of what happened at OpenAI broadly accurate?

Nov 24, 12:08 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.43%chance

18857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

934

Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before the end of 2027?

Dec 31, 2:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.45%chance

25717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1078

925

If I livestream a game of chess with my partner and run a market on the outcome, will that market get at least 15 traders?

Dec 19, 2:10 AMJul 1, 7:00 AM

70.33%chance

27542

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1086

953

Will a VR video game make the Wikipedia "best of all time" list by 2030?

Nov 8, 8:36 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM

70.44%chance

17348

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

958

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

Mar 9, 7:59 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

35%chance

10338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

995

AI improves season 8 of Game of Thrones by 2030

Feb 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.52%chance

13246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

993

Will there be an official Hundreds of Beavers video game released by the end of 2027?

Jun 2, 2:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.03%chance

7240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

905

An algorithm exists that can run on a Game Boy Advance that will pass one of the AGI tests in the linked question

Oct 17, 4:18 AMMar 26, 6:59 AM

40.78%chance

4235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

Will Blizzard games still be legally available in Mainland China at the end of 2030?

Apr 10, 4:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75%chance

12199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

921

Elon mentions one of 6 games by mid 2026

Jan 2, 5:28 PMJun 30, 9:59 PM

43.92%chance

5150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

885

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