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Prediction markets for Gate

Will Bill Gates be alive through the end of 2025?

Jan 19, 8:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97.61%chance

203456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3681

848

When will Baldur's Gate 3 get a DLC release?

Dec 11, 6:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62192

OptionProbability

2026 or later (or never)

1H 2024 (before July 1st)

2H 2024 (after June 30th)

1H 2025 (before July 1st)

2H 2025 (after July 1st)

2023

99

0

0

0

0

0

Will Larian Studios release another Baldur's Gate game by 2033?

Dec 28, 6:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

22.22%chance

292037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

699

Will Bill Gates be cryopreserved?

Aug 28, 7:08 AMSep 5, 6:59 AM

8.8%chance

201814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1578

904

Will Bill Gates make any Tweeter(X) posts in 2025?

Feb 4, 1:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

99%chance

91757

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1851

29

Will any car drive itself from the Empire State Building to the Golden Gate Bridge before April 2028?

Mar 14, 10:02 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

30.83%chance

351372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1342

622

When will Larian Studios announce Baldur's Gate 4?

Dec 28, 10:30 AMNov 13, 10:59 PM

201109

OptionProbability

Never

Other

2025

2026

2024

94

5

1

1

0

Will Bill Gates be alive through the end of 2040?

Jan 19, 8:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65%chance

13524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

635

Will Bill Gates be alive through the end of 2030?

Jan 19, 8:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.4%chance

13284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1240

917

Will P. D. Mangan die before Bill Gates?

Jan 31, 4:14 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

50.1%chance

8269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

137

116

Will "The Pearly Gates" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 12, 5:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.11%chance

2159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

815

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

Jul 31, 4:37 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

3/2025

4/2025

1/2026

Other

25

25

25

25

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