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Prediction markets for GCP

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

97.16%chance

2711352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6226

197

Will either Gartner or IDC claim that by 2032, cloud spending quadrupled from 2022? (1,000 subsidy)

Jan 4, 6:31 PMMar 31, 2:59 AM

83%chance

91949

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2421

680

Will intersections where self-driving cars can ignore traffic signals exist in the US by end of 2030?

Jun 29, 6:09 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.28%chance

231399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1997

812

Will global carbon emissions decrease in 2025 compared to 2024 levels?

Jan 2, 10:00 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

19.43%chance

281061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

354

135

When will a cloud provider attribute an incident resolution to an autonomous AI agent

Feb 25, 4:35 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

3599

OptionProbability

>=2030

2027

2028

2029

2026

41

20

15

15

9

AI reduces public cloud spending by end of 2027?

Nov 6, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.75%chance

6340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

62

Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

82.65%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

63

A use case where a typical enterprise would need to have data in the cloud to fully enjoy the benefits of AI

Nov 29, 4:25 AM

00

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