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Prediction markets for GDP

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.09%chance

455323493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2699

2492

Will the US enter a recession by end of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)

Aug 29, 6:22 PMApr 1, 6:59 AM

16.88%chance

271175849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17487

7622

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Jul 9, 4:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

2974768

OptionProbability

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, >=4%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, >=4%

28

27

21

20

1

1

1

1

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.1%chance

7233819

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

784

In which quarters of 2025 will US GDP contract? (3rd estimate)

May 1, 5:31 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

3732936

OptionProbability

Q1

Q3

Q4

Q2

100

30

29

3

Will China ever surpass US gdp?

Sep 4, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.81%chance

8016775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1575

644

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64%chance

3014612

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13272

8386

What will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?

Nov 20, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1276965

OptionProbability

Between 4% and 6%

Between 2% and 4%

More than 6%

Between 0% and 2%

< -2%

Between -2% and 0%

Other

34

32

16

10

4

4

0

Will China's GDP surpass US GDP before 2035?

Apr 26, 8:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

33%chance

333180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1486

1312

Which of the following countries will be the biggest country by GDP in 2050?

Dec 18, 9:10 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

422639

OptionProbability

The USA

China

India

Other

Japan

Germany

Russia

55

36

5

3

0

0

0

Will China's GDP per capita surpass Japan's by the end of 2035?

Feb 11, 12:44 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

12.16%chance

121108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

970

By how many years would AGI-induced transformative impact (defined as sustained global GDP growth of +5% annually) be de

May 18, 7:34 PMDec 31, 8:31 PM

00

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