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Prediction markets for GE

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40%chance

38639966300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11008

10270

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54%chance

602394096

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16776

7995

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.5%chance

455372687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3723

1531

Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?

May 14, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.19%chance

474211028

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4298

3273

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

11.4%chance

279186234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1753

947

Manifest 2025 Startup Pitch Competition - Will at least 3 companies get funding?

May 9, 3:23 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM

23.34%chance

73165995

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114234

27276

Will my ex partner and I get back together within 3 years?

Aug 16, 1:44 AMJun 17, 6:59 AM

69.58%chance

189139847

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165099

32367

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3148216

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

31

27

24

17

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Jan 30, 7:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.33%chance

11317915

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14461

8011

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Jul 21, 9:57 AMAug 28, 10:59 PM

36.31%chance

6107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

Will Serena Ge (https://serenage.super.site/) become a Thiel Fellow?

Jun 11, 11:09 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.66%chance

489

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

84

Will Serena Ge join forces with Matthew Barnett, Tamay, and Mechanize?

Jun 11, 3:57 AMJan 1, 4:57 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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