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Prediction markets for GeM

Will the next Gemini model have a stupid fucking name?

Jun 17, 5:52 PMDec 31, 5:31 PM

54.41%chance

278195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1092

915

Will Gemini 3 be released in August?

Aug 7, 5:52 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

17.72%chance

374707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2155

464

Will Gemini be more popular than Chatgpt at the end of 2025?

Jan 15, 3:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.13%chance

252525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2560

803

Google Gemini 3 Flash release date?

Mar 25, 12:29 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

122075

Google Partnership with Apple for Gemini integration into iPhone by EOY?

Aug 9, 3:19 PMDec 31, 3:45 PM

12.93%chance

141979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2595

385

Is Gemini going to be used widely as a verb like how Google is used by EOY 2026?

Feb 27, 1:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.91%chance

231621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1890

882

What will the next Pokemon games be named after?

Jan 26, 3:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23911

OptionProbability

A natural object

A color

Other

A gem or precious metal

An artificial object

A letter or symbol

A period of time

41

28

12

9

5

3

1

Will Gemini 2.5 pro be the top AI model as per LMArena by the end August

Aug 14, 4:35 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

12.93%chance

18533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

39

Will "Gemini Diffusion: watch this space" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 10:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.49%chance

4460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1460

940

Which will be the majority pronunciation of the term “meme” by the year 2030?

Aug 14, 9:58 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11295

OptionProbability

Meme - rhymes with deem (most like gene)

Meme - pronounced “me me” like Mimi Rodgers

Sounds like Meh meh

Other

Meme - rhymes with gem

Meme - pronounced "may may"

86

3

3

3

2

2

Will the American Gem Trade Association add a new birthstone by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 2:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.06%chance

354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

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