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Top stories

Apollo 13 Commander Jim Lovell Dies at 97

Apollo 13 Commander Jim Lovell Dies at 97

Authors

95

6 days ago

Prediction markets for Gemini 12

On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?

Dec 28, 2:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.5%chance

233794

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1584

631

When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles?

Mar 3, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

292566

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2026

2025

2024

72

56

32

11

0

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64%chance

351950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

911

Will "Gemini Diffusion: watch this space" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 10:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.49%chance

4460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1460

940

Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

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