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Gemini Advanced News
Prediction markets for Gemini Advanced
Prediction markets for Gemini Advanced
Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
Nov 9, 1:06 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
13%
chance
112
115251
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1303
961
Will Google join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
Aug 30, 1:13 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
27.3%
chance
40
4938
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1632
613
Will GPT 5 score more than human baseline (83.7%) on Simple Bench?
Aug 3, 10:03 PM
Dec 31, 10:53 PM
29.87%
chance
12
433
Option
Votes
YES
NO
153
65
2025 SOTA LLM releases cause Kokotajlo to increase AGI timeline estimate?
Apr 9, 4:48 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
33.14%
chance
14
159
Option
Votes
YES
NO
142
70
Will the SEC bring an enforcement action against OpenAI or its executives, in connection with Altman firing before 2026?
Feb 29, 5:57 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
30.54%
chance
3
60
Option
Votes
YES
NO
200
102
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