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Prediction markets for Gemini Day

Pacific Coast Highway: can it be driven from SF to LA on these days? (CA Route 1 closures/washouts/fires), til 2030

Jan 9, 9:03 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

97452

OptionProbability

March 1 2026

May 1 2026

July 1 2026

Jan 1 2027

July 1 2027

July 1 2028

Jan 1 2028

Jan 1 2029

July 1 2029

July 1 2025

Jan 1 2026

Sep 1 2025

Dec 1 2025

March 1 2025

June 1 2025

August 1 2025

100

100

100

80

80

71

63

63

62

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.9%chance

316987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4412

227

Will a chatbot read sheet music before 2027?

Jan 12, 11:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.58%chance

525976

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1359

794

When will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?

Jan 21, 6:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

172482

OptionProbability

2027

2030 and after. . . or we're all dead before the news comes out.

2026

2028

2029

40

17

16

16

10

Will a Google Deepmind model be ranked in the top 3 models at the end of 2026?

Aug 17, 5:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.57%chance

151707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1621

617

Will Gemini Flash 3.6 achieve a mortal rating of 70 or higher in Riichi Mahjong?

Sep 9, 11:54 PMOct 9, 10:59 PM

30.21%chance

4527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1520

658

Will Chatgpt-type Chatbots become permanent part of our daily lives before 2100?

Sep 9, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10154

OptionProbability

Yes, by 2100

No

62

37

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