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Prediction markets for Gemini Deep Think

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before August 2026?

Feb 18, 6:17 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

22.71%chance

141961

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1845

542

Gemini 3.5 Pro METR 50% time horizon

May 21, 7:08 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

131840

OptionProbability

14h - 16h

12h - 14h

10h - 12h

16h - 18h

18h - 20h

20h - 22h

Other

6h - 8h

8h - 10h

<6h

27

25

8

8

7

6

6

5

5

3

New gemini version out in june

Jun 8, 10:37 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

48%chance

19410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

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