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Prediction markets for Gemini Deep Think

Gemini 3.5 Pro METR 50% time horizon

May 21, 7:08 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

173113

OptionProbability

12h - 14h

14h - 16h

10h - 12h

16h - 18h

8h - 10h

18h - 20h

6h - 8h

Other

20h - 22h

<6h

20

19

14

11

8

8

7

6

5

2

We get Gemini 4 Pro before GTA 6

Jul 7, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.01%chance

7835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

568

504

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before EOY 2026?

Aug 1, 12:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.77%chance

2260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1260

944

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