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Prediction markets for Gemini LLM

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

46.63%chance

10412863

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

1003

Will an LLM consistently create 5x5 word squares by 2026?

Jul 2, 5:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

84.17%chance

287238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2179

568

Will Apple still be partnered with OpenAI in 2028?

Jun 11, 10:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.09%chance

142530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2394

424

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64%chance

351950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

911

Will Google cancel an LLM-based product by end of 2025?

Mar 5, 10:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.13%chance

291725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1637

478

When will someone be able to recreate Google's Hands-on with Gemini video for the first time?

Dec 12, 4:33 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

9572

OptionProbability

2026 or later

Second half of 2025

First half of 2025

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

53

10

9

7

7

7

7

How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)

Feb 27, 11:49 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

12566

OptionProbability

Other

1 month

Never (ie OpenAI releases a better model before anyone else can)

3 months

1 week

6 months

28

27

19

10

8

8

Will a frontier model be delayed in the EU by 90+ days in 2025?

Aug 15, 1:29 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

34.38%chance

6410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1382

724

2025 SOTA LLM releases cause Kokotajlo to increase AGI timeline estimate?

Apr 9, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75%chance

17334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

Will I continue paying for ChatGPT through the summer?

Jun 3, 7:09 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

83.95%chance

13225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

229

44

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