Gemini LLM News

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

23.47%chance

11615920

OptionVotes

YES

2089

579

Will Apple still be partnered with OpenAI in 2028?

Jun 11, 10:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

27.63%chance

205129

OptionVotes

YES

1715

649

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

1014

884

Google deploys ads in Gemini web or mobile app by end of 2026

Jan 8, 5:08 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM

9.64%chance

282136

OptionVotes

YES

306

Which company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)

Jan 5, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

241117

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Moonshot AI

Google

Other

DeepSeek

xAI

How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)

Feb 27, 11:49 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

12566

OptionProbability

Other

1 month

Never (ie OpenAI releases a better model before anyone else can)

3 months

1 week

6 months

Will Chatgpt-type Chatbots become permanent part of our daily lives before 2100?

Sep 9, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10154

OptionProbability

Yes, by 2100

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Jan 20, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.79%chance

5117

OptionVotes

YES

184

Will Chatgpt-type chatbots become permanent in our lives permanently before 2100?

Sep 15, 1:20 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

137

OptionProbability

No, they will be replaced by a different technology before becoming permanent

Yes, they will become permanent fixtures by 2030

Yes, they will become permanent fixtures between 2031-2050

Yes, they will become permanent fixtures between 2051-2099

No, they will lose popularity and cease to be part of daily life

Gemini LLM News

Prediction markets for Gemini LLM

Prediction markets for Gemini LLM

Prediction markets for Gemini LLM

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Will Apple still be partnered with OpenAI in 2028?

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Google deploys ads in Gemini web or mobile app by end of 2026

Which company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)

How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)

Will Chatgpt-type Chatbots become permanent part of our daily lives before 2100?

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Will Chatgpt-type chatbots become permanent in our lives permanently before 2100?

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