Gemini LLM News

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

23.29%chance

11715930

OptionVotes

YES

2099

576

Will Apple still be partnered with OpenAI in 2028?

Jun 11, 10:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

27.61%chance

215130

OptionVotes

YES

1716

648

Google deploys ads in Gemini web or mobile app by end of 2026

Jan 8, 5:08 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM

7.23%chance

292191

OptionVotes

YES

358

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

1014

884

Which company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)

Jan 5, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

271487

OptionProbability

Google

Anthropic

OpenAI

DeepSeek

How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)

Feb 27, 11:49 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

131116

OptionProbability

1 month

1 week

Other

Never (ie OpenAI releases a better model before anyone else can)

3 months

6 months

Where will Gemini 4 Pro score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index vs the leading model prior to its inclusion?

Sep 30, 2:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5264

OptionProbability

Gemini 4 Pro 5-8 points worse

Gemini 4 Pro 0-4 points worse

Gemini 4 Pro ≥9 points worse

Gemini 4 Pro scores higher than the prior leading model

Will Chatgpt-type Chatbots become permanent part of our daily lives before 2100?

Sep 9, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10154

OptionProbability

Yes, by 2100

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Jan 20, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.79%chance

5117

OptionVotes

YES

184

Will Chatgpt-type chatbots become permanent in our lives permanently before 2100?

Sep 15, 1:20 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

137

OptionProbability

No, they will be replaced by a different technology before becoming permanent

Yes, they will become permanent fixtures by 2030

Yes, they will become permanent fixtures between 2031-2050

Yes, they will become permanent fixtures between 2051-2099

No, they will lose popularity and cease to be part of daily life

Gemini LLM News

Prediction markets for Gemini LLM

Prediction markets for Gemini LLM

Prediction markets for Gemini LLM

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Will Apple still be partnered with OpenAI in 2028?

Google deploys ads in Gemini web or mobile app by end of 2026

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Which company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)

How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)

Where will Gemini 4 Pro score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index vs the leading model prior to its inclusion?

Will Chatgpt-type Chatbots become permanent part of our daily lives before 2100?

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Will Chatgpt-type chatbots become permanent in our lives permanently before 2100?

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