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Prediction markets for Gemini LLMs

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.9%chance

1418449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2306

1744

In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard?

Jul 6, 10:34 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4015686

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

99

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

884

Will major media publish stronger evidence of Trump’s cognitive decline?

Jan 19, 1:24 AMJan 1, 1:18 AM

64.02%chance

13564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

794

437

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6210

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

61

51

30

24

22

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

Aug 19, 9:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.88%chance

7160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

220

45

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Jan 20, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.79%chance

5117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

54

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