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Prediction markets for Gemini LLMs

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.39%chance

1218303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2281

1762

In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard?

Jul 6, 10:34 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3711324

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

2030

2031

2032

65

15

5

1

1

1

1

1

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.24%chance

142281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2403

416

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.62%chance

362030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

784

Will major media publish stronger evidence of Trump’s cognitive decline?

Jan 19, 1:24 AMJan 1, 1:18 AM

64.8%chance

12465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

808

430

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4111

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

83

81

50

50

32

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

Aug 19, 9:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.91%chance

6100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

62

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Jan 20, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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