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Gemini Pro News

September 2026 AI model releases

Aug 30, 9:40 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

16744154

OptionProbability

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash

Muse Spark 1.3 (or any Meta model)

Claude Opus 5.x

GPT-6

Grok 4.x (or any Grok/Composer model)

Claude Fable 5.x

DeepSeek V4.x (or any DeepSeek model)

Any Nvidia model

GPT-6 Sol

GPT-6 Luna

Qwen 4 (or any Qwen model)

Any Mistral Model

Kimi K3.x (or any Kimi model)

Minimax M3.x (or any Minimax model)

GLM-5.4 (or any GLM model)

TML-Large (or any Thinking Machines model)

Any model developed by fal Research

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash-Lite

Claude Sonnet 5.x

Claude Haiku 5.x

Claude Fable 5.2

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Pro

Any Safe Superintelligence (SSI) Model

GPT-5.7

GPT-6 Terra

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

64

63

43

41

33

17

17

16

15

15

14

11

7

1

1

September 2026 AI model releases

Aug 30, 8:15 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

6314602

OptionProbability

Claude Fable 5.x

GPT-5.7 or GPT-6

Claude Opus/Sonnet/Haiku 5.x

Muse Spark 1.x (or any Meta model)

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash/Flash-Lite

Kimi K3.x (or any Moonshot AI model)

Minimax M3.x (or any Minimax model)

TML-Large (or any Thinking Machines model)

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Pro

Deepseek V4.x Pro/Lite

100

100

100

100

100

64

43

18

12

9

When will Google release Gemini 3.5 pro?

Jun 28, 5:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4212584

OptionProbability

Before 11.59pm et December 31 2026

Before 11.59pm et June 30 2026

Before 11.59pm et July 4 2026

Before 11.59pm et July 9 2026

Before 11.59pm et July 17 2026

Before 11.59pm et July 24 2026

Before 11.59pm et July 31 2026

Before 11.59pm et August 30 2026

97

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Gemini 3.5 Pro METR 50% time horizon

May 21, 7:08 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

173113

OptionProbability

12h - 14h

14h - 16h

10h - 12h

16h - 18h

8h - 10h

18h - 20h

6h - 8h

Other

20h - 22h

<6h

20

19

14

11

8

8

7

6

5

2

By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year?

Feb 2, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10960

OptionProbability

< 0.05x

0.05x - 0.2x

0.2x - 0.5x

0.5x - 0.9x

0.9x - 1.1x

> 1.1x

35

27

21

6

6

5

Will Google release "Gemini 3.5 Pro" to the public before October 1, 2026?

Aug 16, 2:22 AMOct 1, 12:00 AM

7.04%chance

13861

OptionVotes

YES

NO

366

45

We get Gemini 4 Pro before GTA 6

Jul 7, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.01%chance

7835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

568

504

Gemini 3.5 Pro when???

Aug 17, 10:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5337

OptionProbability

October 2026

September 2026

November 2026

December 2026

January 2027 or later or never

August 2026

31

20

19

16

13

1

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before EOY 2026?

Aug 1, 12:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.77%chance

2260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1260

944

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

Aug 19, 9:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.88%chance

7160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

220

45

Will any European model listed on arena.ai agent arena have a higher score than Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview by end 2026?

Sep 12, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.15%chance

545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

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