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Prediction markets for Gemini Thinking

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.04%chance

264557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3638

276

When will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?

Jan 21, 6:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

172442

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2030 and after. . . or we're all dead before the news comes out.

2028

2029

40

19

17

16

10

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

884

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before August 2026?

Feb 18, 6:17 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

22.71%chance

141961

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1845

542

Gemini 3.5 Pro METR 50% time horizon

May 21, 7:08 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

131840

OptionProbability

14h - 16h

12h - 14h

10h - 12h

16h - 18h

18h - 20h

20h - 22h

Other

6h - 8h

8h - 10h

<6h

27

25

8

8

7

6

6

5

5

3

New gemini version out in june

Jun 8, 10:37 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

37.19%chance

21439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will Model Intelligence diverge from consumer market share?

Apr 14, 12:44 AMApr 14, 12:30 AM

665

OptionProbability

Yes

N/A (unclear)

No

60

23

17

Who will change their logo first: gemini or luma

Jul 29, 7:29 AMDec 31, 7:25 AM

547

OptionProbability

Luma

Gemini

Neither

61

19

19

Which AI gave the best response to the White Lotus meme?

Mar 19, 10:01 AM

470

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