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Prediction markets for Gemini Thinking

Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025

Nov 9, 1:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10%chance

113116754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1667

914

Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)

Jun 1, 10:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7026933

OptionProbability

Llama 4

Claude 4(any version)

Gemini 2

Grok 2

Claude 4 Opus

Phi 4

Gemini 2.5 Pro Deep Think

DeepSeek Coder V3

Gemini 1.5 Ultra

DeepSeek-R2

Gemini 3

Claude 5

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

1

1

1

1

0

Will the next Gemini model have a stupid fucking name?

Jun 17, 5:52 PMDec 31, 5:31 PM

49.11%chance

268085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

982

On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?

Dec 28, 2:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.5%chance

233794

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1584

631

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64%chance

351950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

911

Other than ClaudePlaysPokemon, which AIs will have their own Twitch streams (>24 hrs) playing video games by EOY 2025?

Feb 27, 6:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

101419

OptionProbability

Claude 4

GPT 5

Gemini 3

Deepseek R2

Grok 4

Llama 4

DeepSeek R1

Kimi-K2

Grok 3

Gemini 2 Flash Thinking

GPT 4.5

100

100

66

40

34

24

20

10

9

2

1

Best public AI model uses "We" in CoT by EOY 2025?

Jun 1, 7:38 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

21.83%chance

121345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1892

528

Will a frontier model be delayed in the EU by 90+ days in 2025?

Aug 15, 1:29 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

33.91%chance

6396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1396

716

Which lab will publish the model leading OpenRouter monthly rankings EOY 2025?

May 1, 10:59 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

369

OptionProbability

Google DeepMind

OpenAI

Anthropic

DeepSeek

xAI

Meta

Other

28

26

22

9

5

5

5

Who will change their logo first: gemini or luma

Jul 29, 7:29 AMDec 31, 7:25 AM

442

OptionProbability

Luma

Gemini

Neither

66

17

17

Which AI gave the best response to the White Lotus meme?

Mar 19, 10:01 AM

450

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