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Prediction markets for Gemini Thinking

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.6%chance

275531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3264

307

Gemini 3.5 Pro METR 50% time horizon

May 21, 7:08 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

173113

OptionProbability

12h - 14h

14h - 16h

10h - 12h

16h - 18h

8h - 10h

18h - 20h

6h - 8h

Other

20h - 22h

<6h

20

19

14

11

8

8

7

6

5

2

When will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?

Jan 21, 6:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

172482

OptionProbability

2027

2030 and after. . . or we're all dead before the news comes out.

2026

2028

2029

40

17

16

16

10

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

884

We get Gemini 4 Pro before GTA 6

Jul 7, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.51%chance

6263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

737

388

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before EOY 2026?

Aug 1, 12:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.77%chance

2260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1260

944

Will Model Intelligence diverge from consumer market share?

Apr 14, 12:44 AMApr 14, 12:30 AM

665

OptionProbability

Yes

N/A (unclear)

No

60

23

17

Who will change their logo first: gemini or luma

Jul 29, 7:29 AMDec 31, 7:25 AM

547

OptionProbability

Luma

Gemini

Neither

61

19

19

Which AI gave the best response to the White Lotus meme?

Mar 19, 10:01 AM

470

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