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Prediction markets for Gemini Ultra

Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)

Jun 1, 10:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6922790

OptionProbability

Llama 4

Claude 4(any version)

Gemini 2

Grok 2

Claude 4 Opus

Phi 4

Gemini 2.5 Pro Deep Think

Gemini 3

DeepSeek-R2

DeepSeek Coder V3

Claude 5

Gemini 1.5 Ultra

100

100

100

100

100

100

97

17

16

14

5

1

Will the next Gemini model have a stupid fucking name?

Jun 17, 5:52 PMDec 31, 5:31 PM

68.86%chance

227527

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1487

673

Will an LLM consistently create 5x5 word squares by 2026?

Jul 2, 5:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

84.17%chance

287238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2179

568

When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles?

Mar 3, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

292566

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2026

2025

2024

72

56

32

11

0

Will the next version of Google's LLMs NOT have Flash / Pro / Ultra or other words after the number?

May 20, 8:01 PMMay 20, 7:59 PM

12.55%chance

42170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2640

379

Will a SOTA model be trained with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks by 2029?

May 3, 2:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.59%chance

15503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

349

29

Did Google intentionally announce Gemini Ultra in a state barely outperforming GPT-4 to slow the capabilities race?

Dec 8, 2:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.34%chance

10446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

478

135

Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029?

May 4, 6:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.35%chance

10362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1064

954

❓ Which AI model will lead the LLM race by the end of 2025?

Aug 3, 3:59 AMAug 17, 10:59 PM

10171

OptionProbability

Other

OpenAI GPT-5

Google Gemini 2.5 Ultra

Anthropic Claude 4 Opus

xAI Grok-2 (Elon Musk)

Meta LLaMA 3.1 (Open Source)

Mistral Large / Mixtral

Alibaba Qwen 2 / Tongyi Qianwen

DeepSeek V2.5

Cohere Command R+

Perplexity LLM

55

21

6

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

People who have tried Gemini Ultra: how impressed are you on a scale of 1-5 (where five is the highest)?

Feb 9, 4:14 PM

180

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