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Prediction markets for Gemini Ultra

When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles?

Mar 3, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

302616

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2026

2024

2025

72

56

32

0

0

Will Google DeepMind release Gemini 3.5 by July 31, 2026?

Apr 29, 9:35 AMJul 31, 10:00 PM

99%chance

81161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1235

19

Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029?

May 4, 6:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.43%chance

11712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1414

776

Will a SOTA model be trained with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks by 2029?

May 3, 2:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6.85%chance

16523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

369

27

New gemini version out in june

Jun 8, 10:37 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

43.45%chance

20420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

49

39

People who have tried Gemini Ultra: how impressed are you on a scale of 1-5 (where five is the highest)?

Feb 9, 4:14 PM

180

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