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Prediction markets for Gemini Ultra

When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles?

Mar 3, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

393199

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2026

2024

2025

83

79

78

0

0

Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029?

May 4, 6:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.43%chance

11712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1414

776

Will a SOTA model be trained with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks by 2029?

May 3, 2:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6.85%chance

16523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

369

27

Will free Gemini app users get access to Gemini 4 Argon by November 15, 2026?

Oct 15, 9:55 AMNov 16, 7:59 AM

5.24%chance

5170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

268

84

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

49

39

People who have tried Gemini Ultra: how impressed are you on a scale of 1-5 (where five is the highest)?

Feb 9, 4:14 PM

180

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