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Gemini Ultra News
Prediction markets for Gemini Ultra
Prediction markets for Gemini Ultra
When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles?
Mar 3, 11:10 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
39
3179
Option
Probability
2028
2027
2026
2024
2025
83
78
77
0
0
Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029?
May 4, 6:39 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
28.43%
chance
11
712
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1414
776
Will a SOTA model be trained with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks by 2029?
May 3, 2:19 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
6.85%
chance
16
523
Option
Votes
YES
NO
369
27
When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?
Sep 17, 11:10 PM
Dec 31, 11:43 PM
2
130
Option
Probability
2029
2027
49
39
People who have tried Gemini Ultra: how impressed are you on a scale of 1-5 (where five is the highest)?
Feb 9, 4:14 PM
18
0
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