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Prediction markets for Gen

When will the first deliveries of the 2nd gen Tesla Roadster occur?

Mar 3, 3:50 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

154498

OptionProbability

Before 2040

Before 2033

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2026

75

63

50

35

5

0

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2026?

Jan 16, 5:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.12%chance

183337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2538

537

Will the Tesla Roadster (2nd gen) be the fastest production car before 2032?

Sep 21, 3:46 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

11.68%chance

71750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2750

364

Will Anthropic release Claude 5 Opus (or equivalent next-gen flagship) before October 1, 2026?

Feb 12, 9:21 AMNov 1, 12:00 AM

89.66%chance

21997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

265

16

2x2: Will Labour get majority, will fossil fuels (without imports) compose >33% of UK energy gen next Parliament?

Dec 20, 3:47 PMDec 27, 11:59 PM

3552

OptionProbability

Labour Majority, fossil fuels <=22%

Labour Majority, fossil fuels >22%

Not Labour Majority, fossil fuels >22%

Not Labour Majority, fossil fuels <=22%

51

47

1

1

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2027?

Jan 16, 5:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35%chance

7302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

182

42

Will Germany leave the FCAS sixth-gen fighter programme and join the GCAP/Tempest programme instead?

Nov 3, 6:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

21.14%chance

6120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

117

Will Gallup, Aella OR authoritative pollster show a[n implied] drop in Gen Alpha afab non-cis rates, from 2025, in 2035?

Nov 18, 5:06 AMNov 17, 11:59 PM

54.53%chance

4105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

913

Will Gallup, Aella OR authoritative pollster show >1.25x OR <0.8x ratio between Gen Alpha M VS F non-cis rates in 2035?

Nov 18, 4:35 AMNov 17, 11:59 PM

54.53%chance

2105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

913

"NVIDIA uses 12VHPWR-style connector for next-gen GPUs?"

Apr 5, 1:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.64%chance

573

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

63

By the end of 2026, will AI have empowered me to build a bot that can reach the top 500 in the current gen of OU?

Oct 16, 3:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38%chance

451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

74

Will a YouTube video of/about a Gen-AI film awards ceremony reach 1 million+ views within a year of release by 2030?"

Oct 3, 6:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

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