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Prediction markets for Gen AI

When will a YouTube or Twitch channel start streaming realtime AI-generated video?

Mar 7, 1:54 PMMar 14, 10:59 PM

315594

OptionProbability

Before 2027-04-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-10-01

Q1 2024

Q2 2024 or earlier

Q3 2024 or earlier

Q4 2024 or earlier

Q1 2025 or earlier

Q2 2025 or earlier

Q3 2025 or earlier

Q4 2025 or earlier

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-07-01

52

45

13

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.04%chance

385427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3399

297

Total subscriber size of non‑porn AI romance/companionship subreddits on Reddit on Aug 17, 2026

Aug 26, 6:04 AMAug 17, 11:59 PM

72363

OptionProbability

> 500,000

280,001–500,000

180,001–280,000

≤ 180,000

45

33

12

10

Will I be able to build a bot that achieves #1 on the Gen 9 1v1 ladderboard on Pokemon Showdown before the end of 2026?

May 12, 2:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.77%chance

5432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

698

Fedorov to announce candidacy for elections in Ukraine before 2027?

Jul 20, 2:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.79%chance

7286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

Will there ever be a Generation X president of the US?

Aug 31, 7:52 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

83.31%chance

12248

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

45

Will a top-20 Super Bowl advertiser air a primarily AI-generated commercial during Super Bowl LXI (Feb 2027)?

Apr 17, 9:34 PMMar 5, 12:00 PM

35.18%chance

670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

215

170

Will Coca Cola Stop using AI to generate their Christmas Commercial before 2030?

Apr 21, 7:52 PMJan 22, 5:59 AM

69%chance

453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

By the end of 2026, will AI have empowered me to build a bot that can reach the top 500 in the current gen of OU?

Oct 16, 3:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38%chance

451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

74

Will a YouTube video of/about a Gen-AI film awards ceremony reach 1 million+ views within a year of release by 2030?"

Oct 3, 6:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

An LLM beats the Champion in FireRed BEFORE achieving it in Gen 1 Red?

May 27, 10:30 PMAug 25, 12:00 AM

33.78%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

How many years until a game like Red Dead Redemption 2 could be developed by a handful (5-20) of people within 2 years.

Jan 6, 3:11 PM

190

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