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Prediction markets for Gen AI

By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024?

May 16, 4:43 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

19.57%chance

376585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2041

285

When will a YouTube or Twitch channel start streaming realtime AI-generated video?

Mar 7, 1:54 PMMar 14, 10:59 PM

213917

OptionProbability

Q1 2026 or earlier

Q4 2025 or earlier

Q3 2025 or earlier

Q2 2025 or earlier

Q1 2024

Q2 2024 or earlier

Q3 2024 or earlier

Q4 2024 or earlier

Q1 2025 or earlier

56

55

38

10

0

0

0

0

0

Can anyone beat me in the Pokemon Monotype Gauntlet? [Rock vs Fire round]

Jan 16, 3:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.56%chance

11494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1706

586

Will Nintendo or the Pokemon Company release an officially licensed Pokemon themed AI of some form by the end of 2025?

Jun 16, 5:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.43%chance

6340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

417

24

By the end of 2026, will AI have empowered me to build a bot that can reach the top 500 in the current gen of OU?

Oct 16, 3:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38%chance

451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

74

Will a YouTube video of/about a Gen-AI film awards ceremony reach 1 million+ views within a year of release by 2030?"

Oct 3, 6:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

An LLM beats the Champion in FireRed BEFORE achieving it in Gen 1 Red?

May 27, 10:30 PMAug 25, 12:00 AM

33.78%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

Will I be a cracked VFX artist in 2025? Mentor's response:

Jul 12, 5:27 AMSep 2, 6:59 AM

325

OptionProbability

Yes

...What?

66

55

How many years until a game like Red Dead Redemption 2 could be developed by a handful (5-20) of people within 2 years.

Jan 6, 3:11 PM

180

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