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Prediction markets for Gen AI

By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024?

May 16, 4:43 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

11.11%chance

397364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2602

186

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.74%chance

354986

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3045

328

When will a YouTube or Twitch channel start streaming realtime AI-generated video?

Mar 7, 1:54 PMMar 14, 10:59 PM

214489

OptionProbability

Q1 2026 or earlier

Q4 2025 or earlier

Q3 2025 or earlier

Q1 2024

Q2 2024 or earlier

Q3 2024 or earlier

Q4 2024 or earlier

Q1 2025 or earlier

Q2 2025 or earlier

50

32

14

0

0

0

0

0

0

Can anyone beat me in the Pokemon Monotype Gauntlet? [Rock vs Fire round]

Jan 16, 3:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.35%chance

13994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4206

238

Will Nintendo or the Pokemon Company release an officially licensed Pokemon themed AI of some form by the end of 2025?

Jun 16, 5:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.38%chance

6390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

467

21

Total subscriber size of non‑porn AI romance/companionship subreddits on Reddit on Aug 17, 2026

Aug 26, 6:04 AMAug 17, 11:59 PM

5384

OptionProbability

> 500,000

180,001–280,000

280,001–500,000

≤ 180,000

35

25

25

15

Will there ever be a Generation X president of the US?

Aug 31, 7:52 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

83.31%chance

12248

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

45

By the end of 2026, will AI have empowered me to build a bot that can reach the top 500 in the current gen of OU?

Oct 16, 3:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38%chance

451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

74

Will a YouTube video of/about a Gen-AI film awards ceremony reach 1 million+ views within a year of release by 2030?"

Oct 3, 6:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

An LLM beats the Champion in FireRed BEFORE achieving it in Gen 1 Red?

May 27, 10:30 PMAug 25, 12:00 AM

33.78%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

How many years until a game like Red Dead Redemption 2 could be developed by a handful (5-20) of people within 2 years.

Jan 6, 3:11 PM

190

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