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Prediction markets for Gene

[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.82%chance

2913425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13323

3371

Will Gene McCarthy's DNA analysis of humans as bonobo/pig hybrids be confirmed by 2030?

Sep 7, 10:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.4%chance

4810757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3538

283

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

49.98%chance

218159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10346

9625

By 2026, will Gene Haas sell Haas Formula 1 Team?

Feb 5, 5:31 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

8%chance

353855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3328

263

By 2030, will gene editing to cure serious genetic diseases be seen as generally uncontroversial?

Dec 23, 2:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.69%chance

473174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1539

770

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

510

Will a gene therapy that edits multiple genes using CRISPR be approved by the FDA before 2030?

Jan 26, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.93%chance

291208

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1257

900

Will GiveWell research gene-editing mosquitoes to eradicate malaria?

Dec 29, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.65%chance

24774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

926

When will commercial gene-editing therapy be available?

Jul 8, 1:44 PMJan 1, 2:40 PM

12326

OptionProbability

Before 2075

Before 2100

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

92

92

75

70

63

Will "Mnemonic portraits for 19,023 human genes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 29, 11:00 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.1%chance

5141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

816

Will >50% of Razib Khan+Chelsea Voss gene pairings have a IQ PRS score of > +2.18 by Savage et al. 2018 study SNPs?

Feb 2, 12:55 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48%chance

244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

Will the identities of the 2018 gene edited Chinese babies be revealed before 2030?

Feb 16, 10:08 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.86%chance

339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

77

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