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Prediction markets for Gene

Will Gene McCarthy's DNA analysis of humans as bonobo/pig hybrids be confirmed by 2030?

Sep 7, 10:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.36%chance

4810748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3547

282

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

49.98%chance

218159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10346

9625

[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.77%chance

256014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5922

4777

By 2030, will gene editing to cure serious genetic diseases be seen as generally uncontroversial?

Dec 23, 2:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.65%chance

463124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

720

By 2026, will Gene Haas sell Haas Formula 1 Team?

Feb 5, 5:31 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

13.21%chance

302948

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2550

353

When will there be credible evidence of an organism with a Gene Drive being released in the wild?

Jan 18, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

411576

OptionProbability

2027-2029

2030-2032

2024-2026

2033-2035

2036-2038

Other

35

20

15

15

8

7

Will a gene therapy that edits multiple genes using CRISPR be approved by the FDA before 2030?

Jan 26, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79.02%chance

271175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1262

899

Will GiveWell research gene-editing mosquitoes to eradicate malaria?

Dec 29, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.65%chance

24774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

926

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Does Janssen's CD59 gene therapy for age-related macular degeneration work?

Jun 4, 2:58 AMJun 11, 6:59 AM

34.12%chance

3401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1393

723

Will "Mnemonic portraits for 19,023 human genes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 29, 11:00 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.1%chance

5141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

816

Will >50% of Razib Khan+Chelsea Voss gene pairings have a IQ PRS score of > +2.18 by Savage et al. 2018 study SNPs?

Feb 2, 12:55 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48%chance

244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

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