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Prediction markets for General Election

Who will be the next British Prime Minister following a General Election?

Sep 29, 9:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9282157

OptionProbability

Nigel Farage

Other

Keir Starmer

Kemi Badenoch

Andy Burnham

Angela Rayner

Wes Streeting

Matt Clifford

Ed Miliband

Rupert Lowe

Zack Polanski

Robert Jenrick

James Cleverly

Ed Davey

Boris Johnson

Louise Haigh

Lawrence Newport

Rachel Reeves

Danny Kruger

Jeremy Clarkson

Jeremy Corbyn

Richard Tice

Idris Elba

30

13

12

8

8

6

5

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35%chance

6617918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

What will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election?

Jan 2, 2:49 AMOct 16, 11:59 PM

812404

OptionProbability

National coalition

Labour coalition

No government formed

Other

50

40

6

5

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

15.45%chance

206717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2340

427

Will Kemi Badenoch lead the Conservative party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:29 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.98%chance

223880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1336

751

How many MPs will Reform UK have when the next UK General Election is called?

Mar 24, 7:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

163107

OptionProbability

Above 15

8 - 10

5 - 7

11 - 15

0

1

2

3 - 4

46

21

13

12

2

2

2

2

Will Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election?

Jan 5, 3:07 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

83.78%chance

263074

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2273

440

Will the triple lock pension be scrapped before the next General Election?

Jan 18, 4:47 PMJul 4, 9:59 PM

47.91%chance

13977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

959

Will average wages rise faster than average house prices in the UK before the next general election?

Jul 14, 11:42 AMAug 25, 10:59 PM

40.75%chance

11595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

829

What percentage of votes will the Partito Democratico win in the upcoming general election in Italy?

Jan 19, 3:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.5%chance

2355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10231

9936

Will the UK Government reduce its current Bitcoin holdings before the next general election?

Dec 3, 2:59 PMJul 4, 10:59 PM

41.58%chance

3310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

844

Will the party endorsed by the Sun newspaper win the next UK general election?

Jul 5, 10:39 AMAug 12, 10:59 PM

57.17%chance

3160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

866

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