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Prediction markets for General Election

Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2.41%chance

9330814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6358

157

What will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election?

Jan 2, 2:49 AMOct 16, 11:59 PM

1517851

OptionProbability

National coalition

Labour coalition

No government formed

Other

54

40

3

3

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

14.69%chance

216787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2410

415

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

135579

OptionProbability

**Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

31

6

Will the next elected leader of the Conservative Party be their leader by the time the next general election is held?

Jul 10, 3:40 PMJul 4, 10:59 PM

52.81%chance

335025

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1713

1244

How many MPs will Reform UK have when the next UK General Election is called?

Mar 24, 7:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

163107

OptionProbability

Above 15

8 - 10

5 - 7

11 - 15

0

1

2

3 - 4

46

21

13

12

2

2

2

2

Will the triple lock pension be scrapped before the next General Election?

Jan 18, 4:47 PMJul 4, 9:59 PM

47.91%chance

13977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

959

Will Zack Polanski contest a seat in a Parliamentary By-Election before the next General Election?

Dec 2, 8:57 AMJul 3, 11:59 PM

44%chance

9881

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

886

Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats at the next general election for the House of Representatives?

May 21, 6:31 AMJun 30, 6:29 AM

56.92%chance

6601

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1090

926

Will Ed Davey lead the Liberal Democrat party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

58%chance

9557

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

851

What percentage of votes will the Partito Democratico win in the upcoming general election in Italy?

Jan 19, 3:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.89%chance

3406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10051

9986

Will the party endorsed by the Sun newspaper win the next UK general election?

Jul 5, 10:39 AMAug 12, 10:59 PM

57.17%chance

3160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

866

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