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Prediction markets for General Purpose AI

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

Jan 23, 12:10 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

28.08%chance

7774340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

951

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1714357

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

64

56

44

30

9

3

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.84%chance

408599

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5103

5087

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.29%chance

464116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2622

208

Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?

Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.92%chance

322864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1213

898

Will general purpose AI models beat average score of human players in Diplomacy by 2028?

Sep 20, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.2%chance

121292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

901

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.96%chance

131199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1689

592

Will any AI investing agent have at least 1 million publicly verifiable monthly active users by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.34%chance

4354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

948

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2028

Feb 16, 7:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.93%chance

10317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

178

56

By what date will all state-of-the-art general-purpose AI systems not be reasoning models?

Oct 10, 10:56 AMJan 1, 11:23 AM

2265

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.01.2029

01.07.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2028

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

59

54

52

41

34

25

17

15

0

By what date will at least one state-of-the-art general-purpose AI system not be a reasoning model?

Oct 10, 10:54 AMJan 1, 11:23 AM

3249

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.07.2029

01.01.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2028

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

72

69

66

59

55

51

44

38

0

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027

Mar 3, 5:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.3%chance

452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

75

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