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Prediction markets for Generally Available

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2026?

Jan 16, 5:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.95%chance

258410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6179

317

In which year will Artificial General Rationalussy become available?

Oct 14, 9:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

174065

OptionProbability

2030s

2020s

2060s or later

2040s

2050s

38

17

17

14

14

Kalshi generally available to UK customers by when?

Dec 7, 10:01 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

41780

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2028

Before Oct 2027

Before Jul 2027

Before Apr 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before Oct 2026

Before Apr 2026

Before Jul 2026

50

44

36

34

30

5

0

0

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Jan 4, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51%chance

181206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

981

Will a self-driving ride hailing service be available to the general public in Greater Toronto by the end of 2035?

Oct 25, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.76%chance

71200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1985

504

Will cheap, portable, general purpose non-invasive brain-computer interfaces be commercially available by the year 2030?

Sep 14, 12:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.65%chance

281187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1382

890

Will a non-Anthropic company make a Mythos-class model generally available worldwide in 2026?

Jun 13, 3:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.61%chance

15630

OptionVotes

NO

YES

294

34

Will drone delivery of groceries be available to the general public in San Francisco by EOY 2026?

Feb 7, 4:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.78%chance

9353

OptionVotes

YES

NO

371

27

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2027?

Jan 16, 5:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.9%chance

11329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

33

Will there be generally available consumer wearables that perform multiple continuous blood tests by 2050?

Feb 16, 11:30 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.68%chance

4144

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

63

When will Waymo or an equivalent be generally available in chicago.

Jun 20, 2:18 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5126

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2028

Before 2029

2030 or later

Before 2027

84

71

71

50

29

Will certain contemporary publicly available GPT models be generally accepted as conscious at inference time by 2100?

Nov 30, 5:15 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

31.03%chance

453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

112

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