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Prediction markets for Generally Available

In which year will Artificial General Rationalussy become available?

Oct 14, 9:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

163915

OptionProbability

2030s

2020s

2060s or later

2040s

2050s

35

24

16

13

13

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2026?

Jan 16, 5:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.07%chance

172837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2038

611

Will a self-driving ride hailing service be available to the general public in Greater Toronto by the end of 2035?

Oct 25, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.76%chance

71200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1985

504

Will cheap, portable, general purpose non-invasive brain-computer interfaces be commercially available by the year 2030?

Sep 14, 12:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.65%chance

281187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1382

890

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Jan 4, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.78%chance

131089

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

977

Waymo generally available in London when?

Oct 18, 2:11 PMJul 1, 2:07 PM

14469

OptionProbability

Before July 2026

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2027

Not before July 2027

88

80

80

20

Will drone delivery of groceries be available to the general public in San Francisco by EOY 2026?

Feb 7, 4:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.78%chance

9353

OptionVotes

YES

NO

371

27

Polymarket generally available to UK customers by when?

Dec 7, 10:03 PMJan 1, 10:02 PM

2314

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2028

Before Jul 2027

Before Oct 2027

Before Oct 2026

Before Jan 2027

Before Apr 2027

Before Jul 2026

Before Apr 2026

76

71

71

50

50

50

29

24

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2027?

Jan 16, 5:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35%chance

7302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

182

42

Will certain contemporary publicly available GPT models be generally accepted as conscious at inference time by 2100?

Nov 30, 5:15 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

31.03%chance

453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

112

Will California have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?

Jan 11, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.01%chance

453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

85

How many months will elapse between general availability of Level 5 self driving and the first strong AGI?

May 24, 7:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61.58%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

92

52

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