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Prediction markets for Generation

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.15%chance

412611088280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29105

16579

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75%chance

293194727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2746

1002

Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 (less strict criteria market)

Jul 2, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.12%chance

22089937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16786

850

Was synthetic video data generated and used in training Sora?

Feb 16, 11:40 AMDec 15, 9:59 PM

29.21%chance

15673729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2370

545

By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn?

Apr 12, 1:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.53%chance

25746864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

617

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2027?

Feb 27, 12:30 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

76.17%chance

14426832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3357

3047

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2025?

Feb 27, 12:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.62%chance

14523055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13887

261

Can LLM generate a Lonpos puzzle solution before the end of 2025?

Nov 14, 1:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.79%chance

1210909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20791

4810

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

31.74%chance

306234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14661

6824

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.82%chance

285164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3696

271

Before 2029, will a 90 minute or longer film generated by AI produce over $100,000 in revenue?

Sep 20, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.73%chance

151382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

947

Will an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?

Jun 7, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.9%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10021

9979

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