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Prediction markets for Generative

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47%chance

475914598035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

23377

17247

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.94%chance

391351512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3411

823

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

86.58%chance

177112186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2208

144

By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn?

Apr 12, 1:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.51%chance

28064198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

953

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

8.29%chance

5830374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33270

3010

Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?

Oct 10, 5:26 AMOct 17, 6:29 PM

7629898

OptionProbability

Second half 2028

First half 2028

Second half 2027

First half 2027

Second half 2026

First half 2026

Second half 2025

First half 2023

Second half 2023

First half 2024

Second half 2024

First half 2025

45

40

35

28

13

8

1

0

0

0

0

0

Which market category on MNX will generate the most volume in 2026?

Apr 9, 4:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3529898

OptionProbability

Equity or index perps

Valuation futures / Pre-IPO

Compute (eg H100 perps)

Benchmarkets

Non-AI prediction markets

45

43

4

4

4

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.76%chance

725643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6181

6090

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script?

Aug 28, 9:21 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

78%chance

343649

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1883

531

Generation Starship By 2150

Jul 4, 1:37 PMJul 31, 6:30 PM

44.3%chance

363622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30796

28524

Before 2029, will a 90 minute or longer film generated by AI produce over $100,000 in revenue?

Sep 20, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56%chance

161838

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

Will an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?

Jun 7, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.52%chance

7401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10134

9925

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