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Prediction markets for Generative

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.87%chance

420011292131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30308

16164

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65%chance

319218651

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2138

1260

By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn?

Apr 12, 1:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.82%chance

26755009

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

949

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2027?

Feb 27, 12:30 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

76.18%chance

14426832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3358

3047

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

20.22%chance

3511669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19862

5039

Will Anthropic release a first-party image generation model in 2026?

Jan 27, 11:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.11%chance

6611475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1197

835

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?

Jan 3, 3:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63%chance

637877

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1246

806

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.81%chance

335935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4447

225

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.76%chance

725643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6181

6090

Will an AI-generated song reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Sep 13, 8:18 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

20.35%chance

323018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1988

508

Before 2029, will a 90 minute or longer film generated by AI produce over $100,000 in revenue?

Sep 20, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55%chance

151816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

905

Will an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?

Jun 7, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.54%chance

6197

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10138

9921

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