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Prediction markets for Generative

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34%chance

462313879238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23950

18858

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.69%chance

378314312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3162

882

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

69%chance

165101432

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1611

304

By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn?

Apr 12, 1:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

88.24%chance

27963523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1600

857

Which market category on MNX will generate the most volume in 2026?

Apr 9, 4:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3428897

OptionProbability

Valuation futures / Pre-IPO

Equity or index perps

Non-AI prediction markets

Compute (eg H100 perps)

Benchmarkets

50

36

5

4

4

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2027?

Feb 27, 12:30 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

53.42%chance

14828063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3963

1566

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

10.95%chance

5025557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28523

3510

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.26%chance

346935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5447

184

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.76%chance

725643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6181

6090

Generation Starship By 2150

Jul 4, 1:37 PMJul 31, 6:30 PM

44.34%chance

323357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29765

27549

Before 2029, will a 90 minute or longer film generated by AI produce over $100,000 in revenue?

Sep 20, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56%chance

161838

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

Will an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?

Jun 7, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.52%chance

7401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10134

9925

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