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Prediction markets for Generative AI

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.87%chance

387010089782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10985

10305

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78.41%chance

287171419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3034

914

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

46.7%chance

11445410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1222

586

By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn?

Apr 12, 1:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.05%chance

25245282

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

738

Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?

Oct 10, 5:26 AMOct 17, 6:29 PM

7126846

OptionProbability

Second half 2028

First half 2028

Second half 2027

First half 2027

Second half 2026

First half 2026

Second half 2025

First half 2025

First half 2023

Second half 2023

First half 2024

Second half 2024

41

40

38

32

20

13

5

1

0

0

0

0

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2027?

Feb 27, 12:30 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

76.17%chance

14426832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3357

3047

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.42%chance

8720969

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1250

776

Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?

Feb 9, 3:48 PMDec 31, 10:01 PM

17.78%chance

9917451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1864

977

By the end of 2025 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?

Dec 5, 9:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

15516604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3865

859

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2025?

Feb 27, 12:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.99%chance

14013336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4206

1444

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

31.82%chance

296204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14631

6838

Will an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?

Jun 7, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.9%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10021

9979

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