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Prediction markets for Generative AI

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.98%chance

419811291687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30202

16201

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.37%chance

318218151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2061

1304

By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn?

Apr 12, 1:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.82%chance

26755009

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

949

Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?

Oct 10, 5:26 AMOct 17, 6:29 PM

7129622

OptionProbability

Second half 2028

First half 2028

Second half 2027

First half 2027

Second half 2026

First half 2026

Second half 2025

First half 2023

Second half 2023

First half 2024

Second half 2024

First half 2025

41

40

38

30

15

8

1

0

0

0

0

0

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2027?

Feb 27, 12:30 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

76.18%chance

14426832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3358

3047

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.29%chance

9121514

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1361

718

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

20.22%chance

3511669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19862

5039

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?

Jan 3, 3:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63%chance

637877

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1246

806

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.76%chance

725643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6181

6090

Will an AI-generated song reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Sep 13, 8:18 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

24%chance

312818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1788

565

Before 2029, will a 90 minute or longer film generated by AI produce over $100,000 in revenue?

Sep 20, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55%chance

151816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

905

Will an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?

Jun 7, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.54%chance

6197

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10138

9921

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