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Prediction markets for Generative AI for Design

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Aug 10, 1:31 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

5%chance

12828388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7285

1681

Will Artemis II fly before Starship Flight 12?

Jan 9, 5:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.81%chance

5718422

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1558

642

Will 5%+ of writers and designers lose their jobs by 2025?

May 12, 9:26 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

10.64%chance

486482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3584

468

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.44%chance

555211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1461

556

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

24.24%chance

1013752

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1843

1542

Will there be a new AI Startup primarily focused on using AI models for computer control before the end of March?

Mar 4, 2:01 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

39.68%chance

141178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

741

Will Elon's Terafab produce a single chip before 2028?

Mar 25, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27%chance

111176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1644

608

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

By 2030, will an architectural firm design and construct a building based entirely on specifications generated by AI?

May 19, 3:37 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

62.04%chance

19362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

954

Will humans remain better at clever turns of phrase and great illustrations, as Wired claims?

Nov 2, 3:43 PMNov 3, 2:37 PM

41.7%chance

6320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

846

Will Antoine Greizmann play a competitive match for Orlando City before EOY 2026

Feb 24, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.32%chance

2255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

805

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

17

17

17

17

17

17

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