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Prediction markets for Generative AI Lab

7. Major progress will be made on building AI systems that can themselves autonomously build better AI systems.

Dec 27, 8:18 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

84.28%chance

258114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2315

432

By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024?

May 16, 4:43 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

11.11%chance

397364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2602

186

8. OpenAI, Anthropic and other frontier labs will begin ‘moving up the stack,’ [...] building applications

Dec 27, 8:22 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

94.68%chance

173443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4220

237

2. Scaling laws will be discovered and exploited in areas beyond text—in particular, in robotics and biology.

Dec 27, 8:12 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

75.4%chance

152818

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1751

571

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.13%chance

172254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3031

1477

Andrej Karpathy's Eureka Labs valued at >$1B by end of 2027?

Oct 18, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.32%chance

13826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

892

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Mar 1, 8:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

41.19%chance

10810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

837

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

Dec 18, 8:22 PMDec 18, 11:59 PM

57.09%chance

24626

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

924

[Carlini questions] Value of most valuable "AI Lab" in billion USD in 2027

Mar 24, 1:34 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8513

OptionProbability

1,000 - 9,999

500 - 999

100 - 499

50 - 99

0 - 49

10,000 or above

64

22

9

2

1

1

Will AI be able to generate a realistic map of the US with all 50 states labeled correctly (no typos) by EOY 2026?

Aug 12, 10:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.16%chance

12471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

308

148

Will AI-generated media on major social media platforms be required to be labeled as such by the US government by 2026?

Jul 16, 3:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.61%chance

10367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

348

29

Will Spotify create a record label and release AI-generated songs by 2026?

Aug 2, 10:42 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

15.21%chance

7214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

63

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