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Prediction markets for Generative AI Lab

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.04%chance

286057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2995

334

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.9%chance

194054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4453

1165

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Mar 1, 8:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.85%chance

131165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1533

652

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.09%chance

151045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1393

720

Andrej Karpathy's Eureka Labs valued at >$1B by end of 2027?

Oct 18, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.59%chance

13874

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

844

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

Dec 18, 8:22 PMDec 18, 11:59 PM

57.09%chance

24626

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

924

Will AI be able to generate a realistic map of the US with all 50 states labeled correctly (no typos) by EOY 2026?

Aug 12, 10:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.53%chance

17563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

299

150

Will AI-generated content be banned or clearly labeled by at least one major social platform (Meta, X, TikTok,YouTube)?

Jan 1, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.5%chance

6435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

525

19

Will AI-generated media on major social media platforms be required to be labeled as such by the US government by 2026?

Jul 16, 3:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.61%chance

10367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

348

29

Which of these rockets will reach orbit first?

Feb 13, 8:11 AMJan 1, 8:11 AM

4245

OptionProbability

Neutron

Nova

Terran R

Rocket 4

None before 2030

67

15

6

6

6

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.64%chance

643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

191

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