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Prediction markets for Generative AI Lab

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.56%chance

265578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1545

648

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.9%chance

194054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4453

1165

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Mar 1, 8:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.53%chance

121160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1545

647

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.48%chance

14895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

570

Andrej Karpathy's Eureka Labs valued at >$1B by end of 2027?

Oct 18, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.59%chance

13874

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

844

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

Dec 18, 8:22 PMDec 18, 11:59 PM

57.09%chance

24626

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

924

Will AI be able to generate a realistic map of the US with all 50 states labeled correctly (no typos) by EOY 2026?

Aug 12, 10:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.17%chance

16561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

308

148

[Carlini questions] Value of most valuable "AI Lab" in billion USD in 2027

Mar 24, 1:34 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8513

OptionProbability

1,000 - 9,999

500 - 999

100 - 499

50 - 99

0 - 49

10,000 or above

64

22

9

2

1

1

Will AI-generated media on major social media platforms be required to be labeled as such by the US government by 2026?

Jul 16, 3:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.61%chance

10367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

348

29

[Carlini questions] Value of most valuable "AI Lab" in billion USD in 2030

Mar 24, 1:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7222

OptionProbability

1000 - 9999

500 - 999

10,000 or above

100 - 499

0 - 49

50 - 99

53

15

13

8

6

5

Will AI-generated content be banned or clearly labeled by at least one major social platform (Meta, X, TikTok,YouTube)?

Jan 1, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.69%chance

5108

OptionVotes

NO

YES

198

50

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