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Prediction markets for Generative AI Lab

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.29%chance

6420347

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

542

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.01%chance

216599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5609

1010

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.5%chance

246554

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3092

324

Andrej Karpathy's Eureka Labs valued at >$1B by end of 2027?

Oct 18, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.75%chance

171846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2313

432

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.86%chance

101503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1653

607

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Mar 1, 8:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.76%chance

161379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1743

574

Will Substack implement an automatic AI-generated-content filter by EoY 2026?

Aug 2, 9:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.07%chance

81347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1562

640

Will AI be able to generate a realistic map of the US with all 50 states labeled correctly (no typos) by EOY 2026?

Aug 12, 10:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.03%chance

18663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

399

132

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

Dec 18, 8:22 PMDec 18, 11:59 PM

57.09%chance

24626

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

924

Will any G7 country pass a mandatory AI-generated content labeling law before Dec 31, 2026?

Mar 29, 2:55 PMJan 15, 12:00 AM

23.96%chance

10464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

79

Will AI-generated content be banned or clearly labeled by at least one major social platform (Meta, X, TikTok,YouTube)?

Jan 1, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.7%chance

10464

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

28

Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?

Jun 30, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.88%chance

7248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

174

58

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