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Prediction markets for Generative AI Lab

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.88%chance

4411762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1497

669

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.72%chance

205734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4744

1120

Andrej Karpathy's Eureka Labs valued at >$1B by end of 2027?

Oct 18, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.1%chance

161816

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2283

438

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Mar 1, 8:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.85%chance

131165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1533

652

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.71%chance

161055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

730

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

Dec 18, 8:22 PMDec 18, 11:59 PM

57.09%chance

24626

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

924

Will AI be able to generate a realistic map of the US with all 50 states labeled correctly (no typos) by EOY 2026?

Aug 12, 10:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.53%chance

17563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

299

150

Will AI-generated content be banned or clearly labeled by at least one major social platform (Meta, X, TikTok,YouTube)?

Jan 1, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.5%chance

6435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

525

19

Will any G7 country pass a mandatory AI-generated content labeling law before Dec 31, 2026?

Mar 29, 2:55 PMJan 15, 12:00 AM

25.62%chance

9303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

82

Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August

May 6, 3:24 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

8.58%chance

9246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

326

31

Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?

Apr 14, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

98

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