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Prediction markets for Generative Artificial Intelligence

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.8%chance

8838615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

841

Will an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027?

Dec 21, 8:12 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

90%chance

7527102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3000

333

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

95.94%chance

10423726

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9951

741

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9217483

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2035+

2029

2030

2026

2031

2032

2033

2034

2025

34

17

11

9

8

7

6

4

3

2

0

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

10.71%chance

2412029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3374

219

Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?

Dec 26, 6:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.43%chance

575230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1571

354

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.06%chance

483141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

619

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2027?

Jan 17, 5:33 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

53.05%chance

382219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1260

437

Will Elon's Terafab produce a single chip before 2028?

Mar 25, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.29%chance

211908

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1448

691

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?

Dec 6, 1:31 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.42%chance

16748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1664

878

Will generative artificial intelligence be banned in at least one G7 country by the end of 2026?

Jul 29, 2:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.94%chance

15732

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

42

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