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Prediction markets for Generative Artificial Intelligence

Will an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027?

Dec 21, 8:12 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

79%chance

10249596

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1940

516

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.8%chance

8838615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

841

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

95.93%chance

10423743

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9935

742

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9521022

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2035+

2029

2030

2031

2032

2026

2033

2034

2025

24

21

13

11

10

8

5

3

3

2

0

Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?

Dec 26, 6:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.51%chance

626005

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2198

167

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.32%chance

483391

OptionVotes

NO

YES

982

869

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

815

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2027?

Jan 17, 5:33 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

34%chance

422919

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

240

Will Elon's Terafab produce a single chip before 2028?

Mar 25, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.78%chance

212033

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1573

636

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?

Dec 6, 1:31 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.42%chance

16748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1664

878

Will generative artificial intelligence be banned in at least one G7 country by the end of 2026?

Jul 29, 2:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.94%chance

15732

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

42

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