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Prediction markets for Generative Background

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

5.22%chance

227665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4263

235

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

20.97%chance

467509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1959

462

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10497

2690

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 5B views before 2027?

Jan 18, 8:55 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

5%chance

254881

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3111

760

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.95%chance

324193

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1361

735

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Jun 15, 5:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83.27%chance

493685

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1925

127

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 2B views before 2027?

Jan 18, 8:48 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.88%chance

202694

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1798

826

Will Elon's Terafab produce a single chip before 2028?

Mar 25, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.78%chance

212033

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1573

636

Video generation model solves Sudoku puzzles by EOY 2026?

Sep 28, 6:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.53%chance

182029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1357

90

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

977

By 2033, will TikTok DJs face competition from at least one AI DJ?

Apr 26, 7:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

75.44%chance

16626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1116

942

Will there be an AI smartphone brought to market by 2027?

Mar 24, 8:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

79.95%chance

25490

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1289

892

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