Generative Background News

What were the motives of the UnitedHealthcare CEO assassin?

Dec 4, 6:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

663461169

OptionProbability

A set of radical beliefs that do not fit on a strict left/right paradigm

An attempt to terrorize people into bringing down the system of private insurance in the United States

Wrongful delay or deny insurance claims

An attempt to change the incentive structure present at the CEO level of UHC and similar companies

Chronic Back Pain

Mental illness

Radical Leftism

Fame

Assassin suffered a personal tragedy at the hands of UnitedHealthcare

Business

Manipulation of the share price of UnitedHealth Inc for profit.

Genetic predisposition (Italian)

Zizian Murder Cult member

Targeted hit/contract killing

brainwashed right wing anti-vax lunatic

Personal conflict with CEO

Random act of violence

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

33.32%chance

177377

OptionVotes

YES

2045

552

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

15.45%chance

206717

OptionVotes

YES

2340

427

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

56.75%chance

375627

OptionVotes

YES

1076

924

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.67%chance

175492

OptionVotes

YES

10016

2817

Will 5%+ of writers and designers lose their jobs by 2025?

May 12, 9:26 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

10.64%chance

445031

OptionVotes

YES

3584

468

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.24%chance

243861

OptionVotes

YES

1089

919

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Jun 15, 5:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.48%chance

453347

OptionVotes

YES

1587

228

Video generation model solves Sudoku puzzles by EOY 2026?

Sep 28, 6:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.94%chance

171993

OptionVotes

YES

1782

561

By 2033, will TikTok DJs face competition from at least one AI DJ?

Apr 26, 7:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

75.44%chance

16626

OptionVotes

YES

1116

942

Will there be an AI smartphone brought to market by 2027?

Mar 24, 8:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

78.93%chance

23426

OptionVotes

YES

1231

907

Will 'From Keynes to the Machine Age' receive substantive critical engagement from qualified experts by 2026?

Oct 11, 4:16 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

39.02%chance

3250

OptionVotes

YES

1250

800

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Prediction markets for Generative Background

Prediction markets for Generative Background

What were the motives of the UnitedHealthcare CEO assassin?

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will 5%+ of writers and designers lose their jobs by 2025?

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Video generation model solves Sudoku puzzles by EOY 2026?

By 2033, will TikTok DJs face competition from at least one AI DJ?

Will there be an AI smartphone brought to market by 2027?

Will 'From Keynes to the Machine Age' receive substantive critical engagement from qualified experts by 2026?

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