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Prediction markets for Generative UI

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3818973

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

54

52

44

35

17

0

Will the terminal UI be the default interface for Claude code on 1 Jan 2027?

Feb 7, 7:42 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

38%chance

4239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Will Manifold create an actual Manifold Mobile App before July 2027?

Jul 7, 1:27 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

40.61%chance

8165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

49

39

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