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Prediction markets for GenOS

Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16%chance

364112279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2272

996

Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034)

Jan 15, 2:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

65.58%chance

8942896

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1545

472

Will there be a trans genocide in America in the next four years?

Jun 30, 3:49 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6.5%chance

3913977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3792

264

Will Israel be found Guilty of Genocide at the ICJ ?

Jan 12, 5:04 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

18.77%chance

10713148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1446

917

Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza, Palestine?

Mar 14, 5:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

29.2%chance

308254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Will the US recognize another genocide before 2029?

Jul 2, 3:07 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

91.6%chance

193726

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3176

525

Will ICJ find Israel in breach of the Genocide Convention?

Feb 15, 5:32 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

57.42%chance

363636

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1161

861

Will the Democratic Nominee in 2028 say “genocide”?

Jun 28, 2:15 PMNov 7, 11:59 PM

36.64%chance

131481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3856

2365

Will all extant mammal species have their genome sequenced and assembled by 2035?

Aug 29, 11:05 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.57%chance

13769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1332

926

Will we be able to edit our own genomes by 2050?

Mar 27, 12:11 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

63.62%chance

23756

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

947

Which QB in a new spot will have more wins as a starter in 2026?

Mar 14, 4:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13161

OptionProbability

Kyler Murray

Malik Willis

Geno Smith

Tua Tagovailoa

72

13

9

6

Will "AI catastrophe: more like a genocide than a t..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 25, 5:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.81%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

998

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