Get Him Back News

NO

NO

Getting depressed

Starting a new hobby

Getting a certification/degree

Breaking a personal record/achievement

Meeting a celebrity

Recovering from depression

Having sex

Going on 3 dates

Attending a funeral

eat a banana

Eating a shrimp

eat meat of any bird

Getting vaccinated

Winning a prize/money/giveaway

Getting a sincere compliment from a stranger on the street

Being happy

Reading 3 books

Stopping with therapy

Having sex in a different country

Eating a potato chip

Use a contraceptive (condom, pill, etc)

Getting a new job

Crying at the cinema

Having sex with 3 different people

Losing my mana streak

Going on a holiday alone

Getting a new house

Finding money on the street

Getting a new car

Running an official running event

Breaking the screen of my smartphone

Using LSD with someone who hasn't done it before

Either donating more to charity, or donating to a more cost effective charity, than last year

Trying 3 new recreational drugs

Losing or gaining weight (more than 5kg, now 72.8kg)

Getting Covid-19

Doing drugs with my mother

Receiving a text message or call from someone who I haven't spoken in 3+ years

Learning a new language

Joining a sports team/club

Making a viral social media post

Joining a new or other political party

Getting a new girlfriend

Getting drinks with my first ex-girlfriend

Losing another family member

Crashing in a 2nd bicycle accident

Getting a game console

Experiencing a natural disaster

Being mistaken for someone famous

Starting a side business

Winning a competition/award

Getting a STD

Starting a blog/substack/podcast

Getting a new nickname at my future job

Getting hearing aids

Moving to a different city/country

Developing a chronic health condition

Attending an Ayahuasca ceremony

Getting shit on by a bird

Hospitalized (24H+)

Getting someone pregnant

Attending a wedding

Getting a medical operation

Getting back with my ex

Experiencing war

Getting a new pet

Attending a baby shower

Getting married/engaged

Having more than 10K streams on an AI song I made

Deciding to get an abortion

Other

ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.

*Markdown* formatting in comments and elsewhere

The ability to look for related markets in the API.

Linkable Comments

Spoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction

Ability to optionally privately enter your expectation of outcome when making a purchase, for the purpose of having a personal calibration curve. Justification: I find that making calibration curves for myself is fun and helps improve my forecasting, and that my calibration curve gets less accurate after a few months if I stop practicing. But the practice takes effort, which could be piggy-backed on the forecasting activity of participating in prediction markets for less effort than doing it seperately.

Ability to include a short message when resolving a market

Reminders. Allow users to set a custom reminder to return to a market.

Merge duplicate Answers for multiple Answer Questions https://manifold.markets/Honourary/will-manifold-markets-add-a-merge-f

Ability to tip users M$ for helpful comments.

Ability to short multiple choice answers

Retroactively close a market, undoing bets after the new close time. (Reward predictions before the events happened, not betting really quickly after hearing the news.)

Resolve market to probabilities other than market probabilities. Useful for betting on outcomes of other markets.

Short answers on free response questions

Graph showing the pool size of a market over time

A meta-market. Simple exchange that lets you place a bid/sell order for shares of whatever market.

Set a time to stop allowing creation of new free response answers separately from the market close time

We need numerical range questions. Many topics are way more informative when expressed that way, over a Yes No.

Ability to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)

A "poll" category of market. You can buy as many votes as you want but the payout is unrelated to which answer wins. (Could be zero, could reverse the system so bettors get 4% and the creator gets the balance, or something else.)

Reducing the number of personal questions (eg. "Will I do ...")

Market Indicies, Allowing Multiple Markets to Be Combined Into One and Automatically Weighted with Drag and Drop Type Feature

Show currently placed on market overviews, like https://manifold.markets/markets (it is easy to forget where loans were used)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to not have ability to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow users to edit their comments

In "Your Trades", show each market's M$ pool

Reduced fees for long horizon markets to increase trading volume.

Upload photos with comments. Useful for proof of results and other fun things.

I would like there to be a feature that integrates something like an RSS feed. If key words or phrases about specific event occurs, trading is suspended until the market is either resolved or the RSS notification is tagged as a false positive. As what often happens, the gains of many bettors are wiped out by slow resolutions of markets.

Zoom on the chart

Statements

Kelly

The ability to subsidize markets, putting up money to enhance liquidity and encourage participation, without taking a particular side of the bet. (The thing that the ANTE option on this market is trying to do, just in a more formal and less ad-hoc way, which would also work for YES/NO markets.)

Aggregate your own trades in timeline view (avoid long list).

Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.

Trade fractional mana

When creating a free answer market, add a starting set of answers without betting.

Combinatorial Prediction Markets

Ability to delete comments.

Load pages faster (Android mobile).

More explanation for people who don't know anything about prediction markets.

Mechanism for making decisions (built-in bundle of conditional markets?) with better incentives for betters (not beauty contest)

Filter OUT market categories on the homepage.

Private messages to users

Ability to select multiple categories of markets on the home page.

Trusted users can add category tags to markets that aren't their own

User create their own currency

Zen mode: Hide the probabilities from the user until they decide to buy.

Market Scanner (like stock screeners)

Will I be able to drop my car at the entrance to a garage and have it park by mid 2026 (possibly out of sight lines)

Will I will be able to get my Tesla model Y 2023 to automatically back out of my driveway to the side of the road by mid 2026

I'll see an Optimus or other Tesla robot in San Mateo CA in public not at the dealership by mid 2028

will I still have grok in my car, through mid 2026

I'll be able to call a Waymo to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025

will I be able to use a non xAi model in the car, via same mechanism as grok, by mid 2026

US Customer takes delivery of Cybercab with no steering wheel by end of 2026

Will someone drive across the country in FSD with no human input of any kind by mid 2026

Max configurable speed for self driving will be above 85 by mid 2025

I'll be able to call a fsd Tesla vehicle to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025

NO

YES

NO

NO

YES

NO

If I apologize and make amends for past mistakes, the likelihood of getting back together will increase

If I maintain regular communication with my ex over the next 3 months, the likelihood of getting back together will increase

If I post on instagram and stories of cool stuff I’m doing, the likelihood of getting back together will increase

If I live alone and don’t have a roommate, the likelihood of getting engaged will increase

If I start dating other people via dating apps, the likelihood of getting engaged will increase

If I start going out to meet women to go on dates with, the likelihood of getting engaged will increase

If I tell her about this prediction market, the likelihood of getting engaged will increase

If I propose with a ring at this moment, the likelihood of getting back together will increase

If I tell her that I will commit to 1 date per week, the likelihood of getting back together will increase

If I gain 15 pounds of muscle, the likelihood of getting back together will increase

If I stop watching porn, the likelihood of getting back together will increase

If I start TRT, the likelihood of us getting back together will increase

If I go no contact for 3 months, the likelihood of getting back together will increase

Within 3 years

Within 6 years

Within a year