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Prediction markets for GitHub AI

Will ZeroPath (YC S24) be inactive by 2028 (excl. acquisition)?

Jul 15, 9:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.63%chance

297245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15723

8186

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.54%chance

777161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2241

1226

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?

Jul 7, 7:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93651

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2025

94

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

Which FOSS projects will leave GitHub in 2026?

Dec 5, 10:06 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

5425

OptionProbability

boozook/playdate

Crates.io (rust-lang/crates.io-index)

oven-sh/bun

Rust toolchain (rust-lang/rust)

15

10

8

3

Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?

May 20, 2:41 AMJan 1, 3:32 AM

5308

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2027

2028

2026

59

37

28

28

19

Kramer Intelligence overtakes Apple Intelligence by the end of 2026?

Jul 4, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.28%chance

6213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

32

Will Github Copilot revert back to their original token usage plan?

Jun 15, 5:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.47%chance

996

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

52

Best 8-hour AI score on RE-Bench >= 0.8 by what year?

Jul 16, 6:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

292

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

83

76

74

66

60

Will Bun's number of open issues will be lower by the end of year

Jul 9, 9:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.91%chance

565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

Which AI coding agent repo gains the most GitHub stars by Nov 27, 2026: opencode, Claude Code, Codex or Gemini CLI?

Oct 27, 12:02 PMNov 27, 11:59 PM

361

OptionProbability

opencode

Claude Code

Codex CLI

Gemini CLI

74

9

9

9

Will Manifold Markets implement one of my suggestions by Midnight Pacific Time, December 23, 2026? (12/23/26)

Jul 22, 2:05 PMDec 22, 11:59 PM

35.8%chance

456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

75

Will 10 distinct Manifold users submit feature request issues to the Terminator2 website GitHub repo by end of 2026?

Feb 27, 12:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.63%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

98

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