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Prediction markets for GitHub AI

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

Dec 5, 1:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4848234

OptionProbability

85% - 90%

75% - 85%

90% - 100%

70% - 75%

53% - 60%

60% - 70%

42

34

19

3

1

1

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.49%chance

716636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1742

1335

At end of 2025, one of the top five software engineering AIs will be exclusively used by 100 or fewer tech companies

Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.4%chance

71077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1670

599

Will ZeroPath be inactive by 2028 (excl. acquisition)?

Jul 15, 9:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.39%chance

18800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10042

9970

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?

Jul 7, 7:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5573

Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?

May 20, 2:41 AMJan 1, 3:32 AM

2240

OptionProbability

2029

2030

2027

2028

2026

37

37

28

28

22

Will I continue paying for ChatGPT through the summer?

Jun 3, 7:09 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

78.95%chance

10188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

52

Kramer Intelligence overtakes Apple Intelligence by the end of 2026?

Jul 4, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.65%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

38

Best 8-hour AI score on RE-Bench >= 0.8 by what year?

Jul 16, 6:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

292

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

83

76

74

66

60

Will someone release a Wan2.1 model finetuned on anthro whales?

Mar 8, 1:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.76%chance

337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

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