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Prediction markets for GitHub AI

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.76%chance

766811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1891

1299

Will ZeroPath (YC S24) be inactive by 2028 (excl. acquisition)?

Jul 15, 9:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.59%chance

294095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12773

8970

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?

Jul 7, 7:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83569

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2025

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

97

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Which FOSS projects will leave GitHub in 2026?

Dec 5, 10:06 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

4325

OptionProbability

boozook/playdate

Crates.io (rust-lang/crates.io-index)

Rust toolchain (rust-lang/rust)

oven-sh/bun

15

10

10

8

Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?

May 20, 2:41 AMJan 1, 3:32 AM

5308

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2027

2028

2026

59

37

28

28

19

Kramer Intelligence overtakes Apple Intelligence by the end of 2026?

Jul 4, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.28%chance

6213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

32

Best 8-hour AI score on RE-Bench >= 0.8 by what year?

Jul 16, 6:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

292

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

83

76

74

66

60

Will the HappyHorse-1.0 weights become publicly available before EOY 2026?

Apr 9, 3:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.51%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

1

Will Github Copilot revert back to their original token usage plan?

Jun 15, 5:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.39%chance

544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

71

When will Krea 2 weights become publicly available?

May 25, 2:46 PMSep 1, 4:00 AM

120

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2027 to April 30, 2027

May 1, 2027 to August 31, 2027

September 1, 2027 or later

Before Jan 1, 2027

27

27

27

18

Will 10 distinct Manifold users submit feature request issues to the Terminator2 website GitHub repo by end of 2026?

Feb 27, 12:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.63%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

98

Will https://errorcorrectionzoo.org/concepts still be online in 2040?

Mar 18, 5:58 PM

20

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