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Prediction markets for GitHub AI

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.36%chance

777061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2141

1245

Will ZeroPath (YC S24) be inactive by 2028 (excl. acquisition)?

Jul 15, 9:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.87%chance

294995

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13673

8705

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?

Jul 7, 7:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93651

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2025

94

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

How many Erdős problems will be marked solved on erdosproblems.com at the end of 2026?

Aug 11, 2:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10566

OptionProbability

630–659

≤599

600–629

700+

660–699

38

27

21

9

6

Which FOSS projects will leave GitHub in 2026?

Dec 5, 10:06 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

4325

OptionProbability

boozook/playdate

Crates.io (rust-lang/crates.io-index)

Rust toolchain (rust-lang/rust)

oven-sh/bun

15

10

10

8

Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?

May 20, 2:41 AMJan 1, 3:32 AM

5308

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2027

2028

2026

59

37

28

28

19

Kramer Intelligence overtakes Apple Intelligence by the end of 2026?

Jul 4, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.28%chance

6213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

32

Will Github Copilot revert back to their original token usage plan?

Jun 15, 5:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.47%chance

996

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

52

Best 8-hour AI score on RE-Bench >= 0.8 by what year?

Jul 16, 6:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

292

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

83

76

74

66

60

Will Manifold Markets implement one of my suggestions by Midnight Pacific Time, December 23, 2026? (12/23/26)

Jul 22, 2:05 PMDec 22, 11:59 PM

35.8%chance

456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

75

When will Krea 2 weights become publicly available?

May 25, 2:46 PMSep 1, 4:00 AM

120

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2027 to April 30, 2027

May 1, 2027 to August 31, 2027

September 1, 2027 or later

Before Jan 1, 2027

27

27

27

18

Will 10 distinct Manifold users submit feature request issues to the Terminator2 website GitHub repo by end of 2026?

Feb 27, 12:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.63%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

98

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