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Prediction markets for GitHub AI

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.31%chance

756761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1841

1310

Will ZeroPath (YC S24) be inactive by 2028 (excl. acquisition)?

Jul 15, 9:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.08%chance

293839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13028

8892

When will Gemini CLI reach version 1.0 (or higher)?

Dec 30, 4:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33253

OptionProbability

June 2026

April 2026

May 2026

March 2026

December 2026 (or later)

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

January 2026

February 2026

15

14

14

13

8

7

7

7

7

7

1

1

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?

Jul 7, 7:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81516

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2025

82

7

2

2

2

2

2

1

Which FOSS projects will leave GitHub in 2026?

Dec 5, 10:06 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

4325

OptionProbability

boozook/playdate

Crates.io (rust-lang/crates.io-index)

Rust toolchain (rust-lang/rust)

oven-sh/bun

15

10

10

8

Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?

May 20, 2:41 AMJan 1, 3:32 AM

5308

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2027

2028

2026

59

37

28

28

19

Kramer Intelligence overtakes Apple Intelligence by the end of 2026?

Jul 4, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.28%chance

6213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

32

Best 8-hour AI score on RE-Bench >= 0.8 by what year?

Jul 16, 6:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

292

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

83

76

74

66

60

Will the HappyHorse-1.0 weights become publicly available before EOY 2026?

Apr 9, 3:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.51%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

1

Will 10 distinct Manifold users submit feature request issues to the Terminator2 website GitHub repo by end of 2026?

Feb 27, 12:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.63%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

98

Will https://errorcorrectionzoo.org/concepts still be online in 2040?

Mar 18, 5:58 PM

20

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