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Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Feb 20, 6:13 AMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

90.33%chance

463285

OptionVotes

YES

2396

728

Will >10 EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, including crypto or inheritance?

Dec 10, 1:36 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

86.43%chance

212078

OptionVotes

YES

1953

Will the US Government make a show of declassifying everything on UFOs / UAPs before 2030

Jul 14, 8:55 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

43.59%chance

311740

OptionVotes

YES

1048

904

Nicki Minaj performs at the Kennedy Center during Trump's current presidential term

Jan 29, 6:21 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

22.18%chance

171354

OptionVotes

YES

1873

534

Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Dec 10, 1:35 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

39.6%chance

19799

OptionVotes

YES

1192

506

Will Clean Air Task Force be recommended as a top charity by Founders Pledge or Giving Green in 2026?

May 23, 3:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76%chance

5314

OptionVotes

YES

334

180

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Feb 9, 7:33 PMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

6211

OptionProbability

OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT

OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT

Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)

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Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Will >10 EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, *including* crypto or inheritance?

Will the US Government make a show of declassifying everything on UFOs / UAPs before 2030

Nicki Minaj performs at the Kennedy Center during Trump's current presidential term

Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Will Clean Air Task Force be recommended as a top charity by Founders Pledge or Giving Green in 2026?

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

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Will >10 EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, including crypto or inheritance?