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GLM News

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

160478553

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2034

Any model announced before 2033

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2030

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any model announced by Google before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced by Meta before 2030

Any model announced before 2028

Any model announced by SSI before 2030

Any model announced by xAI before 2030

Grok 5

GPT-6

Gemini 4

Any model announced before 2027

Claude 3.5 Opus

OpenAI o4

Fable/Mythos 5.5

Gemini 3.5

Claude Opus 4.9

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

DeepSeek-V4

Any model announced before 2026

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Gemini 3

Any Claude 4 model

Any Claude 5 model

grok-4

Sonnet 4.5

Kimi K2

GPT-5.1

Claude 4.5 Opus

Claude 5 Opus

GPT-5.2

Any model announced before July 1, 2026

Opus 4.6

GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)

GPT-5.5

Muse Spark (from Meta)

Any Claude Mythos model (first version released)

Opus 4.7

Opus 4.8

GPT-5.6

GLM-5.2

88

84

83

83

79

79

74

74

72

65

61

56

52

49

44

26

19

19

18

13

10

6

3

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

August 2026 AI model releases

Aug 1, 1:57 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

8813149

OptionProbability

Muse Spark 1.2 (or any Meta model)

Qwen 3.8 (or any Qwen model)

GLM-5.x (or any GLM model)

Deepseek V4 Pro GA (or any Deepseek model)

Grok 4.x

Minimax M3.x (or any Minimax model)

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Pro

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash

Claude Fable 5.x

Claude Haiku 5.x

Claude Sonnet 5.x

GPT-5.7

TML-Large (or any Thinking Machines model)

Kimi K3.x (or any Kimi model)

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash-Lite

GPT-6

Claude Opus 5.x

Any Safe Superintelligence (SSI) Model

100

99

93

89

88

81

62

60

57

35

34

27

26

24

19

18

14

2

GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date

Feb 20, 5:45 AMDec 1, 4:59 AM

181974

OptionProbability

Before September 2026

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before October 2026

Before August 2026

Before March 2026

Before April 2026

Before May 2026

Before June 2026

Before July 2026

93

80

70

67

1

0

0

0

0

0

Will Fable remain at the top of the coding ranking?

Jun 30, 9:15 AMDec 31, 10:05 AM

29.18%chance

111776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1558

642

🪙Which crypto coins or assets will be delisted from Coinbase before the end of 2027? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 15, 2:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

171557

OptionProbability

Tron TRX

SuperRare RARE

Zcash ZEC

Seamless SEAM

Pluton PLU

0x Protocol ZRX

Decentraland MANA

Badger DAO BADGER

Golem GLM

Tezos XTZ

Solana SOL

Basic Attention Token BAT

Bitcoin BTC

Ethereum ETH

96

76

56

50

50

50

50

50

34

27

10

9

1

1

Is Pony Alpha a new GLM model?

Feb 8, 5:45 AMJan 1, 5:44 AM

98.42%chance

5672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

768

70

Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?

May 31, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.85%chance

7171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224

58

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