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GLM News

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

178522118

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2034

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2033

Any model announced before 2030

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced by Google before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced before 2028

Any model announced by Meta before 2030

Any model announced by xAI before 2030

Any model announced by SSI before 2030

Any model announced before 2027

GPT-6.5

Gemini 4

Grok 5

Claude 3.5 Opus

Fable/Mythos 5.5

OpenAI o4

Claude Opus 4.9

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

DeepSeek-V4

Any model announced before 2026

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Gemini 3

Any Claude 4 model

Any Claude 5 model

grok-4

GPT-6

Sonnet 4.5

Kimi K2

GPT-5.1

Gemini 3.5

Claude 4.5 Opus

Claude 5 Opus

GPT-5.2

Any model announced before July 1, 2026

Opus 4.6

GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)

GPT-5.5

Muse Spark (from Meta)

Any Claude Mythos model (first version released)

Opus 4.7

Opus 4.8

GPT-5.6

GLM-5.2

OpenAI Astra (first model released)

87

84

84

84

81

80

80

79

77

76

74

73

67

65

41

29

27

16

14

13

13

10

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

September 2026 AI model releases

Aug 30, 9:40 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

16744181

OptionProbability

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash

Muse Spark 1.3 (or any Meta model)

Claude Opus 5.x

GPT-6

Grok 4.x (or any Grok/Composer model)

Claude Fable 5.x

DeepSeek V4.x (or any DeepSeek model)

Any Nvidia model

GPT-6 Sol

GPT-6 Luna

Qwen 4 (or any Qwen model)

Any Mistral Model

Kimi K3.x (or any Kimi model)

Minimax M3.x (or any Minimax model)

GLM-5.4 (or any GLM model)

TML-Large (or any Thinking Machines model)

Any model developed by fal Research

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash-Lite

Claude Sonnet 5.x

Claude Haiku 5.x

Claude Fable 5.2

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Pro

Any Safe Superintelligence (SSI) Model

GPT-5.7

GPT-6 Terra

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

67

63

43

41

33

17

17

16

15

15

13

11

7

1

1

GLM 5.4+ (Z.ai) release date

Aug 31, 2:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82880

OptionProbability

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-12-16

Before 2026-11-16

Before 2026-12-01

Before 2026-10-16

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-09-16

88

86

86

85

84

49

10

2

GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date

Feb 20, 5:45 AMDec 1, 4:59 AM

252483

OptionProbability

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before October 2026

Before March 2026

Before April 2026

Before May 2026

Before June 2026

Before July 2026

Before August 2026

Before September 2026

85

51

19

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Fable remain at the top of the coding ranking?

Jun 30, 9:15 AMDec 31, 10:05 AM

18.95%chance

132346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2068

484

🪙Which crypto coins or assets will be delisted from Coinbase before the end of 2027? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 15, 2:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

181567

OptionProbability

Tron TRX

SuperRare RARE

Seamless SEAM

Pluton PLU

0x Protocol ZRX

Decentraland MANA

Badger DAO BADGER

Zcash ZEC

Golem GLM

Tezos XTZ

Solana SOL

Basic Attention Token BAT

Bitcoin BTC

Ethereum ETH

96

76

50

50

50

50

50

46

34

27

10

9

1

1

Is Pony Alpha a new GLM model?

Feb 8, 5:45 AMJan 1, 5:44 AM

99%chance

61042

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1138

65

Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?

May 31, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.82%chance

8325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

66

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