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Prediction markets for Global

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.58%chance

7634311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1236

809

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2024?

May 11, 9:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.75%chance

3623586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10465

9846

Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2100, and what will be the cause?

Jul 21, 12:41 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6217808

OptionProbability

No global catastrophe

Artificial Intelligence

Biological

Climate

Nuclear

Other cause

Nanotechnology

60

12

11

10

3

3

1

Global CO2 emissions in 2050 (excluding land use)?

Jul 2, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

179634

OptionProbability

40 - 49.99

10 - 19.99

30 - 39.99

0 - 9.99

20 - 29.99

50 - 59.99

Below 0

60 - 69.99

70 - 79.99

80 - 89.99

90+

25

19

13

11

11

10

5

2

1

1

1

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53%chance

458657

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10942

8778

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2025, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 3:56 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

8.25%chance

308483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2913

147

Will there be a global depression in the 2020s?

Apr 3, 3:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.34%chance

276257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3116

321

Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?

Jul 21, 12:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

25.02%chance

153649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1632

652

What percentage of the global population will be internet users in 2030?

Mar 17, 4:49 PMJan 1, 6:01 AM

76.18%chance

621913

OptionProbability

NO

YES

7104

5981

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

19.62%chance

101749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3048

1488

Will global iron + steel slag output exceed 600 million tonnes in 2030?

Nov 26, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.13%chance

2418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10381

9633

By how many years would AGI-induced transformative impact (defined as sustained global GDP growth of +5% annually) be de

May 18, 7:34 PMDec 31, 8:31 PM

00

OptionProbability

0 - 4

5 - 9

10 - 19

20 - 29

30 - 49

50 - 100

Above 100

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

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