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Prediction markets for Global

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.25%chance

7025176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15964

5161

Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2100, and what will be the cause?

Jul 21, 12:41 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6217917

OptionProbability

No global catastrophe

Climate

Artificial Intelligence

Biological

Nuclear

Other cause

Nanotechnology

60

12

11

9

5

3

1

Will global iron + steel slag output exceed 600 million tonnes in 2030?

Nov 26, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.01%chance

1417401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13630

7337

Global CO2 emissions in 2050 (excluding land use)?

Jul 2, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2012007

OptionProbability

40 - 49.99

10 - 19.99

0 - 9.99

30 - 39.99

50 - 59.99

20 - 29.99

Below 0

60 - 69.99

70 - 79.99

80 - 89.99

90+

25

16

12

12

11

10

7

2

2

1

1

Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

27.2%chance

77592

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16358

6113

Who will be the next Executive Director of the Global Fund?

Aug 7, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

116688

OptionProbability

Any other person

Mark Dybul

Ashwin Vasan

John Nkengasong

Matshidiso Moeti

William Steiger

Helen Clark

37

15

11

11

11

9

5

Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

35.11%chance

65080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13596

7355

Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

35.24%chance

74600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13555

7377

Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?

Jul 21, 12:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.95%chance

173656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1635

651

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

30.97%chance

202661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2032

1823

What percentage of the global population will be internet users in 2030?

Mar 17, 4:49 PMJan 1, 6:01 AM

75.61%chance

631963

OptionProbability

NO

YES

6946

6031

Will the U.S. or Israel be at war with Iran at any point during the year in which global peak oil is reached?

May 10, 2:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Yes, Israel

Yes, Both U.S. and Israel

No, and the year is before 2030

Peak oil occurs 2030 or later

25

25

25

25

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