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Prediction markets for Global

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.03%chance

7837594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2097

493

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

5420240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13385

6612

Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2100, and what will be the cause?

Jul 21, 12:41 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6217917

OptionProbability

No global catastrophe

Climate

Artificial Intelligence

Biological

Nuclear

Other cause

Nanotechnology

60

12

11

9

5

3

1

Will global iron + steel slag output exceed 600 million tonnes in 2030?

Nov 26, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65%chance

1217351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13629

7337

Global CO2 emissions in 2050 (excluding land use)?

Jul 2, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1810384

OptionProbability

40 - 49.99

10 - 19.99

30 - 39.99

0 - 9.99

20 - 29.99

50 - 59.99

Below 0

60 - 69.99

70 - 79.99

80 - 89.99

90+

25

19

13

11

11

10

4

2

2

1

1

[ACX 2026] What will the average global surface air temperature be in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?

Jan 7, 12:00 AMJan 7, 7:59 AM

118197

OptionProbability

1.40 - 1.50°C

1.30 - 1.40°C

1.50 - 1.60°C

1.20 - 1.30°C

1.60 - 1.70°C

Below 1.2°C

1.70 - 1.75°C

Above 1.75°C

40

22

22

6

5

2

1

1

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

Nov 27, 12:11 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

325908

OptionProbability

2100

2075

2050

2040

2030

2028

2029

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

28

22

14

8

6

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?

Jul 21, 12:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

25.08%chance

163650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1629

653

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2027?

Apr 8, 5:39 PMApr 15, 9:59 PM

35.29%chance

403085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

910

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

19.46%chance

142098

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3068

1483

What percentage of the global population will be internet users in 2030?

Mar 17, 4:49 PMJan 1, 6:01 AM

76.18%chance

621913

OptionProbability

NO

YES

7104

5981

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2028?

Apr 17, 3:54 PMFeb 24, 9:59 PM

68.2%chance

231639

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1454

690

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