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Prediction markets for Global

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.1%chance

7636038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

731

Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2100, and what will be the cause?

Jul 21, 12:41 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6217808

OptionProbability

No global catastrophe

Artificial Intelligence

Biological

Climate

Nuclear

Other cause

Nanotechnology

60

12

11

10

3

3

1

Will global iron + steel slag output exceed 600 million tonnes in 2030?

Nov 26, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.05%chance

916287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13949

7169

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.76%chance

5010335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11171

8526

Global CO2 emissions in 2050 (excluding land use)?

Jul 2, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

179634

OptionProbability

40 - 49.99

10 - 19.99

30 - 39.99

0 - 9.99

20 - 29.99

50 - 59.99

Below 0

60 - 69.99

70 - 79.99

80 - 89.99

90+

25

19

13

11

11

10

5

2

1

1

1

How many people will attend EA Global: San Francisco 2026

Jan 14, 3:43 PMJan 14, 10:59 PM

128985

OptionProbability

1100 - 1149

1050 - 1099

1150 - 1199

1200 - 1249

1000 - 1049

Above 1250

950 - 999

850 - 899

900 - 949

750 - 799

800 - 849

Below 750

17

15

14

13

11

8

6

4

4

3

3

2

[ACX 2026] What will the average global surface air temperature be in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?

Jan 7, 12:00 AMJan 7, 7:59 AM

118197

OptionProbability

1.40 - 1.50°C

1.30 - 1.40°C

1.50 - 1.60°C

1.20 - 1.30°C

1.60 - 1.70°C

Below 1.2°C

1.70 - 1.75°C

Above 1.75°C

40

22

22

6

5

2

1

1

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

Nov 27, 12:11 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

325908

OptionProbability

2100

2075

2050

2040

2030

2028

2029

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

28

22

14

8

6

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?

Jul 21, 12:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

25.08%chance

163650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1629

653

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2027?

Apr 8, 5:39 PMApr 15, 9:59 PM

39.45%chance

392910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

978

What percentage of the global population will be internet users in 2030?

Mar 17, 4:49 PMJan 1, 6:01 AM

76.18%chance

621913

OptionProbability

NO

YES

7104

5981

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

19.59%chance

111754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3053

1487

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