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Prediction markets for Global

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.66%chance

6021073

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13006

6885

Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2100, and what will be the cause?

Jul 21, 12:41 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6217917

OptionProbability

No global catastrophe

Climate

Artificial Intelligence

Biological

Nuclear

Other cause

Nanotechnology

60

12

11

9

5

3

1

Will global iron + steel slag output exceed 600 million tonnes in 2030?

Nov 26, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.07%chance

1317391

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13649

7327

Global CO2 emissions in 2050 (excluding land use)?

Jul 2, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1811297

OptionProbability

40 - 49.99

10 - 19.99

0 - 9.99

30 - 39.99

20 - 29.99

50 - 59.99

Below 0

60 - 69.99

70 - 79.99

80 - 89.99

90+

25

18

12

12

10

10

7

2

1

1

1

[ACX 2026] What will the average global surface air temperature be in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?

Jan 7, 12:00 AMJan 7, 7:59 AM

129134

OptionProbability

1.40 - 1.50°C

1.30 - 1.40°C

1.50 - 1.60°C

1.20 - 1.30°C

1.60 - 1.70°C

Below 1.2°C

1.70 - 1.75°C

Above 1.75°C

47

25

14

5

5

2

1

1

Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

28.69%chance

56181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15764

6344

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

Nov 27, 12:11 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

325918

OptionProbability

2100

2075

2050

2040

2030

2028

2029

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

28

22

14

8

6

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

35.23%chance

54582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13560

7375

Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

35.02%chance

43881

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13622

7341

Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?

Jul 21, 12:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.95%chance

173656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1635

651

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

23%chance

152257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2664

1592

What percentage of the global population will be internet users in 2030?

Mar 17, 4:49 PMJan 1, 6:01 AM

75.61%chance

631963

OptionProbability

NO

YES

6946

6031

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