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Prediction markets for Global

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.63%chance

7125412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15846

5216

Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2100, and what will be the cause?

Jul 21, 12:41 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6217917

OptionProbability

No global catastrophe

Climate

Artificial Intelligence

Biological

Nuclear

Other cause

Nanotechnology

60

12

11

9

5

3

1

Will global iron + steel slag output exceed 600 million tonnes in 2030?

Nov 26, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.07%chance

1517421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13650

7326

Global CO2 emissions in 2050 (excluding land use)?

Jul 2, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2012007

OptionProbability

40 - 49.99

10 - 19.99

0 - 9.99

30 - 39.99

50 - 59.99

20 - 29.99

Below 0

60 - 69.99

70 - 79.99

80 - 89.99

90+

25

16

12

12

11

10

7

2

2

1

1

Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

44.59%chance

1311321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11148

8971

Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

42.62%chance

810267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11603

8618

Who will be the next Executive Director of the Global Fund?

Aug 7, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2710128

OptionProbability

Any other person

William Steiger

Mark Dybul

Ashwin Vasan

John Nkengasong

Matshidiso Moeti

Helen Clark

43

16

11

10

8

8

4

Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

52.89%chance

69260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10595

9438

Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?

Nov 5, 2:47 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.35%chance

646436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

235

Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?

Jul 21, 12:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.12%chance

183738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1496

701

What percentage of the global population will be internet users in 2030?

Mar 17, 4:49 PMJan 1, 6:01 AM

75.61%chance

631963

OptionProbability

NO

YES

6946

6031

Will the U.S. or Israel be at war with Iran at any point during the year in which global peak oil is reached?

May 10, 2:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Yes, Israel

Yes, Both U.S. and Israel

No, and the year is before 2030

Peak oil occurs 2030 or later

25

25

25

25

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