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Prediction markets for Global

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.54%chance

7327748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13488

6542

Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2100, and what will be the cause?

Jul 21, 12:41 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6217917

OptionProbability

No global catastrophe

Climate

Artificial Intelligence

Biological

Nuclear

Other cause

Nanotechnology

60

12

11

9

5

3

1

Will global iron + steel slag output exceed 600 million tonnes in 2030?

Nov 26, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.07%chance

1517421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13650

7326

[ACX 2026] What will the average global surface air temperature be in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?

Jan 7, 12:00 AMJan 7, 7:59 AM

1515734

OptionProbability

1.40 - 1.50°C

1.50 - 1.60°C

1.30 - 1.40°C

1.20 - 1.30°C

1.60 - 1.70°C

Below 1.2°C

1.70 - 1.75°C

Above 1.75°C

48

41

4

2

2

1

1

1

Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

39.95%chance

1412824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12260

8157

Global CO2 emissions in 2050 (excluding land use)?

Jul 2, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2012007

OptionProbability

40 - 49.99

10 - 19.99

0 - 9.99

30 - 39.99

50 - 59.99

20 - 29.99

Below 0

60 - 69.99

70 - 79.99

80 - 89.99

90+

25

16

12

12

11

10

7

2

2

1

1

Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

42.62%chance

810267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11603

8618

Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

52.89%chance

69260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10595

9438

Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?

Jul 21, 12:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

29.7%chance

193763

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1435

726

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

42.5%chance

233523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2153

1456

What percentage of the global population will be internet users in 2030?

Mar 17, 4:49 PMJan 1, 6:01 AM

75.61%chance

631963

OptionProbability

NO

YES

6946

6031

Will the U.S. or Israel be at war with Iran at any point during the year in which global peak oil is reached?

May 10, 2:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Yes, Israel

Yes, Both U.S. and Israel

No, and the year is before 2030

Peak oil occurs 2030 or later

25

25

25

25

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