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Prediction markets for Global Health

When will PEPFAR funding be unfrozen?

Mar 15, 10:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5230986

OptionProbability

After 2025 or not at all

July-December

May or June

April

March

67

18

7

5

3

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

Jan 4, 12:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.42%chance

41911

OptionProbability

YES

NO

6494

4099

Will Peter Daszak serve time in the US, UK or EU for his professional global health work before 2040

Jun 15, 9:49 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

9.54%chance

161801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1485

869

Will GiveWell's recommendations age poorly, by 2026?

Nov 24, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.84%chance

331440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2655

1053

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

35.26%chance

191028

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

830

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11946

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

25

9

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

Novel human infectious disease identified by WHO before EOY2025?

Mar 24, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.19%chance

13562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

938

Will systemic poverty be eliminated before 2050?

Nov 15, 10:31 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

26.94%chance

22473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

971

Will the World Health Organization declare another global pandemic before 2030?

Apr 11, 2:36 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

36.65%chance

15374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

245

166

Will Peter Daszak be a defendant in a US, UK or EU trial related to his professional global health work before 2040

Jun 12, 9:33 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

41.79%chance

9295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

125

Will WHO declare a global health emergency not directly based on epidemic concerns by 2030?

May 18, 10:55 AMDec 31, 8:59 PM

46.16%chance

14

OptionVotes

YES

NO

54

46

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